CAJ | 학술논문

本文首先考察了我国货币供给内生的现实环境，并采用ARDL方法对我国经验数据进行实证检验，验证了我国货币供给的内生性问题，表明税收和政府投资是影响货币供给的内生性因素。在此基础上，从货币供给内生的前提出发，本文构建了扩展的内需增长模型，用SVAR方法考察了财政对我国内需增长率的影响。实证结果显示，税收和政府投资增速提高，均会对内需增长率产生负面影响。同时，本文还探讨了货币供给内生环境下财政对内需的影响机制，认为税收和政府投资会影响货币供给，通过新的影响路径对内需产生负面影响。
본문수선고찰료아국화폐공급내생적현실배경，병채용ARDL방법대아국경험수거진행실증검험，험증료아국화폐공급적내생성문제，표명세수화정부투자시영향화폐공급적내생성인소。재차기출상，종화폐공급내생적전제출발，본문구건료확전적내수증장모형，용SVAR방법고찰료재정대아국내수증장솔적영향。실증결과현시，세수화정부투자증속제고，균회대내수증장솔산생부면영향。동시，본문환탐토료화폐공급내생배경하재정대내수적영향궤제，인위세수화정부투자회영향화폐공급，통과신적영향로경대내수산생부면영향。
This paper investigated the environment of China＇s endogenous money supply and applied ARDL method and empirical data to test the endogenous money supply problem. This paper explored that taxes and government investment were endogenous factors which affected the money supply. By constructing the expanding domestic demand growth model and using SVAR method to inspect the influence of public finance on domestic demand growth rate, the empirical results showed that raising taxes or the government investment increase would have a negative impact on domestic demand growth rate. Meanwhile, this paper also discussed that taxes and government investment would affect the money supply and have a negative impact on domestic demand through the new path.