软科学
軟科學
연과학
Soft Science
2013年
5期
21~25
,共null页
吴凡 祝嘉 卢阳春
吳凡 祝嘉 盧暘春
오범 축가 로양춘
国有固定资产投资 动态经济增长效应 地方投融资平台 规范发展
國有固定資產投資 動態經濟增長效應 地方投融資平檯 規範髮展
국유고정자산투자 동태경제증장효응 지방투융자평태 규범발전
state - owned fix investment, dynamic economic development effects, regional financial platform companies, reg-ulation management and development
将传统意义下以政府为主体的公共投资扩展到政府主导下的国有投资,通过向量自回归(VAR)分析框架下的格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数分析,发现国有基础设施投资对经济增长具有显著正向效应,而国有资本对经营性产业的投资对经济增长没有明显的促进效应。究其原因,主要在于国有投资具有半行政半市场的双重属性,对社会资本的引导作用不足,而在竞争性行业对私人投资产生了明显的挤出效应。地方投融资平台作为国有投资的主要承载者,普遍面临政企权责不清、负债高风险大、投资进退无序等问题,解决问题的关键是清晰地方投融资平台的企业属性,依据不同类型国有投资进行分级管控、分类管理。
將傳統意義下以政府為主體的公共投資擴展到政府主導下的國有投資,通過嚮量自迴歸(VAR)分析框架下的格蘭傑因果檢驗和脈遲響應函數分析,髮現國有基礎設施投資對經濟增長具有顯著正嚮效應,而國有資本對經營性產業的投資對經濟增長沒有明顯的促進效應。究其原因,主要在于國有投資具有半行政半市場的雙重屬性,對社會資本的引導作用不足,而在競爭性行業對私人投資產生瞭明顯的擠齣效應。地方投融資平檯作為國有投資的主要承載者,普遍麵臨政企權責不清、負債高風險大、投資進退無序等問題,解決問題的關鍵是清晰地方投融資平檯的企業屬性,依據不同類型國有投資進行分級管控、分類管理。
장전통의의하이정부위주체적공공투자확전도정부주도하적국유투자,통과향량자회귀(VAR)분석광가하적격란걸인과검험화맥충향응함수분석,발현국유기출설시투자대경제증장구유현저정향효응,이국유자본대경영성산업적투자대경제증장몰유명현적촉진효응。구기원인,주요재우국유투자구유반행정반시장적쌍중속성,대사회자본적인도작용불족,이재경쟁성행업대사인투자산생료명현적제출효응。지방투융자평태작위국유투자적주요승재자,보편면림정기권책불청、부채고풍험대、투자진퇴무서등문제,해결문제적관건시청석지방투융자평태적기업속성,의거불동류형국유투자진행분급관공、분류관리。
This paper expands the content of public investment from traditional government investments into the state -owned investment led by governments, and uses the Granger -causality test model and impulse - response function to analyze the e-conomic development effects of state - owned fix investment. By empirical analysis, it expounds that state - owned fix invest- ments on infrastructure have positive effects to economic development,but state-owned fix investments on commercial in-dustries have no obvious positive effects to economic development. The main reason is about the dual attribute of regional fi-nancial platform companies which is the main carriers of state - owned fix investment : half government and half business. It made its lead function to social capital become lower and had obvious crowding - out effect to private capital in competition industries. Focused on the current financial risk and low promotion effects to economic development, this paper raises that the key of regional financial platform companies' regulation development is based on the policies of "grade regulation, classified management" on the different stated - owned fix investment.