CAJ | 학술논문

在环渤海地区经济快速发展以及渤海环境严重污染、资源严重消耗的大背景下，研究环渤海地区经济发展与能源消耗压力之间的关联关系，对于协调环渤海地区社会经济发展与资源可持续发展具有重要意义。以列昂季耶夫（Leontief）发明的投入产出技术为基础，将不同区域相同年度的投入产出表加工整合，成功编制了环渤海地区区域经济一体化投入产出表。在此基础上，根据工业发展阶段理论，设定了三种情景的环渤海地区工业结构，结合投入产出表得出国民经济工业各部门波及影响效应，模拟在三种情景下对能源消耗所带来的压力。研究结果表明，不同情景对能源所造成的压力不同，工业结构内部是否合理是影响环渤海地区能源消耗的重要因素。因此建议环渤海地区调整产业结构，转变经济增长方式，走可循环经济的发展道路。
재배발해지구경제쾌속발전이급발해배경엄중오염、자원엄중소모적대배경하，연구배발해지구경제발전여능원소모압력지간적관련관계，대우협조배발해지구사회경제발전여자원가지속발전구유중요의의。이렬앙계야부（Leontief）발명적투입산출기술위기출，장불동구역상동년도적투입산출표가공정합，성공편제료배발해지구구역경제일체화투입산출표。재차기출상，근거공업발전계단이론，설정료삼충정경적배발해지구공업결구，결합투입산출표득출국민경제공업각부문파급영향효응，모의재삼충정경하대능원소모소대래적압력。연구결과표명，불동정경대능원소조성적압력불동，공업결구내부시부합리시영향배발해지구능원소모적중요인소。인차건의배발해지구조정산업결구，전변경제증장방식，주가순배경제적발전도로。
Recent years have seen the rapid economic development in Bohai-rim; however, it also brings about heavy environmental pollution of Bohai Sea and high consumption of resources. Under this background, the study on the associations between economic growth and the pressure of energy consumption in Bohai-rim region has important implications for the realization of regional social economy and resource coordinated sustainable development. Based on Leontief＇s input-output technique, input-output tables of different regions of the same year were processed and integrated so that the input-output table of regional economic integration of Bohai-rim was obtained. On this basis, according to industrial development stage theory, industrial, structures of Bohai-rim region in three scenarios were set. Combined with the input-output table obtained, the ripple effects of all industrial sectors in national economy, were figured out, simulating pressures brought out by energy consumption in three different scenarios. Results show that pressures of energy consumption in different scenarios are different, and whether industrial structure is rational is one of the important factors affecting the energy consumption. Consequently, it is suggested to adjust industrial structures, transform economic growth pattern and follow the path of recycling economic development.