预测
預測
예측
Forecasting
2013年
3期
8~12
,共null页
经济增长 二氧化碳排放 环境库兹涅茨曲线 半参数面板数据模型
經濟增長 二氧化碳排放 環境庫玆涅茨麯線 半參數麵闆數據模型
경제증장 이양화탄배방 배경고자열자곡선 반삼수면판수거모형
economic growth; emissions of carbon dioxide; Environmental Kuznets Curve（EKC） ; semiparametric panel data model
本文以中国28个地区1995～2009年的面板数据,在估算28个地区CO2排放量的基础上,采用灵活稳健的半参数面板数据模型对我国CO2排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性进行了实证研究。结果表明：中国及其东部存在CO2排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线并且转折点为0.76千元人均实际GDP,但是中部、西部不存在该曲线;中部正趋近于人均CO2排放的转折点,西部离该转折点还有较大差距;第二产业占GDP比重对CO2排放具有正向的影响。
本文以中國28箇地區1995～2009年的麵闆數據,在估算28箇地區CO2排放量的基礎上,採用靈活穩健的半參數麵闆數據模型對我國CO2排放的環境庫玆涅茨麯線的存在性進行瞭實證研究。結果錶明：中國及其東部存在CO2排放的環境庫玆涅茨麯線併且轉摺點為0.76韆元人均實際GDP,但是中部、西部不存在該麯線;中部正趨近于人均CO2排放的轉摺點,西部離該轉摺點還有較大差距;第二產業佔GDP比重對CO2排放具有正嚮的影響。
본문이중국28개지구1995～2009년적면판수거,재고산28개지구CO2배방량적기출상,채용령활은건적반삼수면판수거모형대아국CO2배방적배경고자열자곡선적존재성진행료실증연구。결과표명：중국급기동부존재CO2배방적배경고자열자곡선병차전절점위0.76천원인균실제GDP,단시중부、서부불존재해곡선;중부정추근우인균CO2배방적전절점,서부리해전절점환유교대차거;제이산업점GDP비중대CO2배방구유정향적영향。
In this paper, we estimate the emissions of carbon dioxide in 28 China＇ s provinces based on their panel data during 1995 -2009, and make an empirical study on the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve of carbon dioxide emissions in China by using the flexible and robust semiparametric panel data model. The results show that China and its eastern areas have the Environmental Kuznets Curve for per capita carbon emissions, which knee point is on 0.76 thousand RMB per capita real GDP. But the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist in the central and western region. The central of China is closing to the knee point, however the west still is far away that. The production value ratio of the second industry to GDP has a positive effect to the emissions of carbon dioxide.
