预测
預測
예측
Forecasting
2013年
3期
24~28
,共null页
出口导向型增长 多变量VAR和VEC模型 方差分解(VDCs)
齣口導嚮型增長 多變量VAR和VEC模型 方差分解(VDCs)
출구도향형증장 다변량VAR화VEC모형 방차분해(VDCs)
export-led growth; multi-variable VAR and VEC models; VDCs
通过使用多变量VAR模型和多变量VEC模型,本文检验了中国经济增长是否是出口导向型的。结果表明,在多变量VAR框架下,结论是不确定的,且结论与样本期选择有关,而在多变量VEC框架下,结论是明确的,即经济增长和出口增长存在双向Granger因果关系。同时,VDCs分析表明,我国经济增长的主要原因是国内需求和政府干预,而非出口。因此,本文研究没有发现证据表明中国经济是出口导向型的。
通過使用多變量VAR模型和多變量VEC模型,本文檢驗瞭中國經濟增長是否是齣口導嚮型的。結果錶明,在多變量VAR框架下,結論是不確定的,且結論與樣本期選擇有關,而在多變量VEC框架下,結論是明確的,即經濟增長和齣口增長存在雙嚮Granger因果關繫。同時,VDCs分析錶明,我國經濟增長的主要原因是國內需求和政府榦預,而非齣口。因此,本文研究沒有髮現證據錶明中國經濟是齣口導嚮型的。
통과사용다변량VAR모형화다변량VEC모형,본문검험료중국경제증장시부시출구도향형적。결과표명,재다변량VAR광가하,결론시불학정적,차결론여양본기선택유관,이재다변량VEC광가하,결론시명학적,즉경제증장화출구증장존재쌍향Granger인과관계。동시,VDCs분석표명,아국경제증장적주요원인시국내수구화정부간예,이비출구。인차,본문연구몰유발현증거표명중국경제시출구도향형적。
The paper tests whether the Chinese economic growth is export-led by using multi-variable VAR and VEC models.It suggests that the conclusions are uncertain under the multi-variable VAR model and associate with the selected sample period,but the conclusions are certain under multi-variable VEC model.There is bidirectional Granger causality between economic growth and export growth.Simultaneously VDCs suggest that domestic demand and government intervention are the first two momentums in Chinese economic growth.So there is no evidence that indicates Chinese economic growth is export-led one.