CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用经济学领域中的波士顿矩阵法，构建竞技实力分布态势模型，将竞技实力分布态势分为：占增双高态、高占低增态、低占高增态和占增双态四种类型，对各洲百年夏季奥运各阶段竞技实力分布进行剖析，得出：欧洲竞技实力四阶段都保持较高占有率，处于占增双高或占高低增态；亚洲竞技卖力从低占到高增再到占增双高态边缘，处于快速发展状态；北美洲竞技实力从占增双高到高占低增，再到占增双低状态，呈现下滑迹象；中南美洲竞技实力向低占高增态转变；非洲和大洋洲竞技实力态势变化不大，基本处于占增双低态。各洲的发展趋势表现为：亚洲发展潜力最大，未来有可能冲击第一集团；欧洲和北美洲的发展潜力不大，但这两洲的竞技实力将在很长一段时间保持优势地位；非训的奥运会竞技实力应该是最动荡的一个洲，但其发展空间比较大；大洋洲是几大洲中变化最小的洲，其竞技实力总体上将不会变化太大；南美洲竞技实力上升的空间介于非洲和大洋洲之间。
본문채용경제학영역중적파사돈구진법，구건경기실력분포태세모형，장경기실력분포태세분위：점증쌍고태、고점저증태、저점고증태화점증쌍태사충류형，대각주백년하계오운각계단경기실력분포진행부석，득출：구주경기실력사계단도보지교고점유솔，처우점증쌍고혹점고저증태；아주경기매력종저점도고증재도점증쌍고태변연，처우쾌속발전상태；북미주경기실력종점증쌍고도고점저증，재도점증쌍저상태，정현하활적상；중남미주경기실력향저점고증태전변；비주화대양주경기실력태세변화불대，기본처우점증쌍저태。각주적발전추세표현위：아주발전잠력최대，미래유가능충격제일집단；구주화북미주적발전잠력불대，단저량주적경기실력장재흔장일단시간보지우세지위；비훈적오운회경기실력응해시최동탕적일개주，단기발전공간비교대；대양주시궤대주중변화최소적주，기경기실력총체상장불회변화태대；남미주경기실력상승적공간개우비주화대양주지간。
This study adopts the Boston matrix method to build a model for the distributional trends of competitive strength. Thus the distributional trends of competitive strength are divided into four types： double-- high, high-- sharing and low-- growing, high-- growing and low-- sharing, and double--low. A comparative analysis of the competitive strength of the five continents across all Summer Olympics reveals the following trends： Europe enjoys high--sharing during all the four phases and has thus been in a status of double--high or high--sharing and low--grow- ing; Asia has developed from low--sharing to high--growing to the margin of double--high at an increasing pace; North America has been going down from double--high to high--sharing and low--growing and then to double--low; South America has been changing towards low--sharing and high--growing; Africa and Oceania both have been in the double--low status with few fluctuations. Therefore, a general summary of the trends is as follows： Asia has the greatest potential to become the most powerful; Europe and North America have little potential to exert, but will still be the most powerful in terms of competitive strength for a long time in the future; for Africa, its competitive strength is the least stable, but has much room for improvement; Oceania has the most stable competitive strength, which will not change much in the future; for South America, its potential for development is between that of Africa and Oceania.