CAJ | 학술논문

利用CGE模型研究的结果表明：大规模财政投资对劳动报酬及经济增长既有着积极效应也有消极效应。其积极效应正如政策预期一样,实现了大规模财政投资促进经济增长的目标;其消极效应主要表现在：使得居民的劳动报酬占比下降;从劳动报酬和政府税收的角度来看,大规模财政投资加剧了＂国进民退＂;行业间的增长效应并不一致,石化等少数几个垄断行业受投资影响的增长效应较为明显,其行业劳动报酬占比呈现上升的趋势,同时这些行业的劳动报酬占全国总体劳动报酬的比例也呈上升的趋势;竞争性行业劳动报酬占比则呈现明显的下降趋势;大规模财政投资加剧了垄断行业和竞争行业的劳动报酬差距。政府新一轮刺激政策需要考虑到政策的负面影响。
이용CGE모형연구적결과표명：대규모재정투자대노동보수급경제증장기유착적겁효응야유소겁효응。기적겁효응정여정책예기일양,실현료대규모재정투자촉진경제증장적목표;기소겁효응주요표현재：사득거민적노동보수점비하강;종노동보수화정부세수적각도래간,대규모재정투자가극료＂국진민퇴＂;행업간적증장효응병불일치,석화등소수궤개롱단행업수투자영향적증장효응교위명현,기행업노동보수점비정현상승적추세,동시저사행업적노동보수점전국총체노동보수적비례야정상승적추세;경쟁성행업노동보수점비칙정현명현적하강추세;대규모재정투자가극료롱단행업화경쟁행업적노동보수차거。정부신일륜자격정책수요고필도정책적부면영향。
This paper focuses on the impact of fiscal investment on the labor share and economic growth . A CGE analysis of the relevant data shows ： the investment policy made by the government has boosted the economic growth, but the economic growth effects are different between different sectors ; a small number of monopolized industries like the petrochemical sector have benefited from the govern- ment investment policy far more than the competitive industries; the labor share in the monopolized sectors have been on continous rise and accounted for an increasing portion of the overall national labor share. On the contrary, the proportion of the labor share in the competitive sectors has shown a tend-ency to decline. This clearly indicates that the large scale government investment has exacerbated the income gap between the monopolized and the competitive sectors. Therefore, the new economic stimu- lus package of the government should take the negative effects of the policy into serious consideration.