CAJ | 학술논문

我国石油价格自1998年6月与国际油价接轨,原油价格随着国际市场价格的变化而浮动。运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验等分析方法,分别对国内外原油现货价格、期货价格的关联性进行了研究。结果显示国内原油价格和国际原油价格存在长期稳定的均衡关系,国际原油期货价格对国内原油价格的影响要大于国际石油现货价格的影响,Brent（布伦特）原油价格对国内油价的影响要大于WTI（美国西德克萨斯）原油价格的影响。
아국석유개격자1998년6월여국제유개접궤,원유개격수착국제시장개격적변화이부동。운용단위근검험、협정검험、격란걸인과관계검험등분석방법,분별대국내외원유현화개격、기화개격적관련성진행료연구。결과현시국내원유개격화국제원유개격존재장기은정적균형관계,국제원유기화개격대국내원유개격적영향요대우국제석유현화개격적영향,Brent（포륜특）원유개격대국내유개적영향요대우WTI（미국서덕극살사）원유개격적영향。
Domestic oil prices have floated with the changes in the international market price since June 1998.Based on the ADF unit root test,cointegration test,Granger causality test and VAR model,the paper studies the correlation between domestic and international crude oil spot prices and futures prices.The results show that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between domestic and international crude oil prices;the influence of the international crude oil futures prices fluctuations on domestic crude oil prices is stronger than that of spot price;and the influence of the Brent crude oil prices on domestic crude oil prices is greater than that of WTI crude oil price.