CAJ | 학술논문

本文以政策外部性关联与协同效应为切入点，通过陕西省西安市新农保试点区县农民问卷调查，对引入土地流转因素的新型农村社会养老保险基金预测进行精算建模和政策仿真研究。结果表明，土地流转因素对新农保参保率、缴费率具有显著影响，基金收支呈现由盈余转向缺口并逐年扩大的趋势，基金和制度存在双重失衡风险。通过关键制度因素的单一及组合调整结果分析对比，提出促进土地流转与新农保制度良性融合与可持续发展的对策建议。
본문이정책외부성관련여협동효응위절입점，통과합서성서안시신농보시점구현농민문권조사，대인입토지류전인소적신형농촌사회양로보험기금예측진행정산건모화정책방진연구。결과표명，토지류전인소대신농보삼보솔、격비솔구유현저영향，기금수지정현유영여전향결구병축년확대적추세，기금화제도존재쌍중실형풍험。통과관건제도인소적단일급조합조정결과분석대비，제출촉진토지류전여신농보제도량성융합여가지속발전적대책건의。
Based on the questionnaire investigation of farmers in the pilots in Xi＇an City of Shaanxi Province, this paper takes policy externality correlation and coordination effect as starting point, and constructs the New Rural Social Endow- ment Insurance Fund forecasting actual model and simulates the fund income and expenditure. The research results show that land circulation factors have an impor- tant effect on participation ratio and contribution rate of New Rural Social Endow- ment Insurance. The fund surplus changes to fund absence, the fund gap is en- larged gradually, and the system and fund would be faced up with unbalance risk. According to the single and combination factors adjustment analysis and compari- son, the paper puts forward some suggestions in order to improve these two sys- tems integration and sustainable development of land circulation and New Rural So- cial Endowment Insurance.