CAJ | 학술논문

现代货币政策研究基本按照＂让数据本身说明一切＂和＂按照严密的理论分析演绎＂两种范式演进,前者以向量自回归（VAR）模型为代表,后者以动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型为典范。二者同是起源于结构式分析,但是在理论严谨性、理性预期的引入、参数估计方法以及模拟、预测和决策功能上存在一定差异。以DSGE-VAR模型为典型代表,实现理论演绎与计量技术的有效结合是现代货币政策研究范式演化的可行途径。
현대화폐정책연구기본안조＂양수거본신설명일절＂화＂안조엄밀적이론분석연역＂량충범식연진,전자이향량자회귀（VAR）모형위대표,후자이동태수궤일반균형（DSGE）모형위전범。이자동시기원우결구식분석,단시재이론엄근성、이성예기적인입、삼수고계방법이급모의、예측화결책공능상존재일정차이。이DSGE-VAR모형위전형대표,실현이론연역여계량기술적유효결합시현대화폐정책연구범식연화적가행도경。
Modern study of currency policy primarily follow two patterns： the pattern of ＂＂ Data are everything by themselves＂ or that of ＂deductive analysis based on a rigorous theory＂. The former is characteristic of the mode of vector regression while the latter is typical of the mode of general balance of dynamic RAM. The two patterns were both derived from structural analysis, so prove not to be efficient enough in theoretical rigorousness, introduc- tion of rational expectation and estimating means by parameters, and imitating, predicting and decision-making functions. As a result, the DSGE-VAR mode as a typical modern pattern of currency policy study offers a most bal- ancing means for development by realizing an effective combination of theoretical deduction with measuring technol- ogy.