CAJ | 학술논문

城市是碳排放的密集区域,城市化是我国碳排放量增长的重要因素。采用1985-2009年的中国城市化水平数据和同期中国碳排放量的测算数据,运用相关分析、协整检验、格兰杰因果分析和误差修正模型对中国城市化与碳排放的关系进行检验。中国城市化水平与碳排放量具有很高的正相关性,两者之间存在着长期的协整关系,城市化水平的提高是碳排放量增加的重要原因,但碳排放量不是城市化水平的格兰杰原因。城市化水平对碳排放的影响具有滞后性,短期影响较小,长期影响显著。利用脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解模型对中国城市化水平与碳排放量进行动态模拟,分析其在长期和短期均衡关系的相互作用机制和影响程度。提出中国实现低碳城市化的建议和对策。
성시시탄배방적밀집구역,성시화시아국탄배방량증장적중요인소。채용1985-2009년적중국성시화수평수거화동기중국탄배방량적측산수거,운용상관분석、협정검험、격란걸인과분석화오차수정모형대중국성시화여탄배방적관계진행검험。중국성시화수평여탄배방량구유흔고적정상관성,량자지간존재착장기적협정관계,성시화수평적제고시탄배방량증가적중요원인,단탄배방량불시성시화수평적격란걸원인。성시화수평대탄배방적영향구유체후성,단기영향교소,장기영향현저。이용맥충향응함수화예측오차방차분해모형대중국성시화수평여탄배방량진행동태모의,분석기재장기화단기균형관계적상호작용궤제화영향정도。제출중국실현저탄성시화적건의화대책。
Cities are concentrated regions of carbon emission, and urbanization is important factor of carbon emission growth in China. This paper utilizes China＇ s urbanization level data from 1985 to 2009 and calculation result of China＇ s carbon emission over the same period and applies correlation analysis, cointegration analysis, Stewart Granger causality analysis and error correction model for the data inspection. The result shows that there exists strong correlation and long - term cointegration relationship between Chinese urbanization and carbon emission, the increase of urbanization level is an important cause of carbon emission growth, but the carbon emission is not the Granger cause of urbanization level. Then the authors apply the impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition for dynamic simulation and analyze the interaction mechanism and the degree of influence between Chinese urbanization and carbon emission. Finally, some recommendations and measures of lowcarbon urbanization in China are put forward.