高校教育管理
高校教育管理
고교교육관리
Journal of higher Education Management
2013年
4期
119~124
,共null页
就业指导 风险决策 期望机会成本 实践 蒙特卡洛模拟
就業指導 風險決策 期望機會成本 實踐 矇特卡洛模擬
취업지도 풍험결책 기망궤회성본 실천 몽특잡락모의
employment guidance;risk decision;expected opportunity cost;practice;Monte Carlo Simulation
为帮助大学生在就业前景不确定时做出更合理的决策,基于风险决策理论探讨了大学生的就业指导框架,并通过蒙特卡洛法来模拟其实践效果。首先,拓展出＂期望机会成本＂的概念,提出了＂期望剩余—期望效用—最大可能性—硬币＂的就业决策标准。其次,分别从大学生决策和就业指导的角度构建了4步决策分析框架和6步指导框架。最后,以对某毕业生的就业决策指导为例,展示了利用风险决策来指导大学生就业的实践与模拟效果。
為幫助大學生在就業前景不確定時做齣更閤理的決策,基于風險決策理論探討瞭大學生的就業指導框架,併通過矇特卡洛法來模擬其實踐效果。首先,拓展齣＂期望機會成本＂的概唸,提齣瞭＂期望剩餘—期望效用—最大可能性—硬幣＂的就業決策標準。其次,分彆從大學生決策和就業指導的角度構建瞭4步決策分析框架和6步指導框架。最後,以對某畢業生的就業決策指導為例,展示瞭利用風險決策來指導大學生就業的實踐與模擬效果。
위방조대학생재취업전경불학정시주출경합리적결책,기우풍험결책이론탐토료대학생적취업지도광가,병통과몽특잡락법래모의기실천효과。수선,탁전출＂기망궤회성본＂적개념,제출료＂기망잉여—기망효용—최대가능성—경폐＂적취업결책표준。기차,분별종대학생결책화취업지도적각도구건료4보결책분석광가화6보지도광가。최후,이대모필업생적취업결책지도위례,전시료이용풍험결책래지도대학생취업적실천여모의효과。
In view of the uncertainty of college students’ employment,a framework of college students’ employment guidance is developed based on the risk decision theory.First of all,the economic concept opportunity cost is extended to the expectation opportunity cost.And then,a risk decision criterion for college students’ employment is explored,which is called the ＂expected surplus-maximum likelihood-coin＂ criterion.Based on the criterion,a four-step framework for students’ risk decision is constructed,and a six-step framework for the universities’ employment instruction is constructed as well.Finally,to test the effect of the framework,a case practice is discussed,and the Monte Carlo method is utilized to simulate the effect.
