中国石油大学学报:社会科学版
中國石油大學學報:社會科學版
중국석유대학학보:사회과학판
Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)
2013年
3期
9~12
,共null页
石油安全 主成分分析 石油需求 综合评价
石油安全 主成分分析 石油需求 綜閤評價
석유안전 주성분분석 석유수구 종합평개
oil security; principal components analysis; oil demand; comprehensive evaluation
为评价中国石油安全水平,选取储采比、储量替换率、石油消费对外依存度、三大市场平均原油价格、石油消耗强度、石油在能源消费中所占比重6大主导因素作为评价指标,以2000-2010年中国石油相应统计数据作为样本,采取主成分分析法进行综合评价。结果表明,各指标对中国石油安全度的影响权重分别为0.28、0.27、0.10、0.13、0.12、0.10。2000-2010年中国石油安全度总体在0.54~0.64之间波动,处于“弱安全”和“不安全”状态。当前,随着石油需求的增加,石油安全形势依然非常严峻,中国应采取切实措施确保石油安全。
為評價中國石油安全水平,選取儲採比、儲量替換率、石油消費對外依存度、三大市場平均原油價格、石油消耗彊度、石油在能源消費中所佔比重6大主導因素作為評價指標,以2000-2010年中國石油相應統計數據作為樣本,採取主成分分析法進行綜閤評價。結果錶明,各指標對中國石油安全度的影響權重分彆為0.28、0.27、0.10、0.13、0.12、0.10。2000-2010年中國石油安全度總體在0.54~0.64之間波動,處于“弱安全”和“不安全”狀態。噹前,隨著石油需求的增加,石油安全形勢依然非常嚴峻,中國應採取切實措施確保石油安全。
위평개중국석유안전수평,선취저채비、저량체환솔、석유소비대외의존도、삼대시장평균원유개격、석유소모강도、석유재능원소비중소점비중6대주도인소작위평개지표,이2000-2010년중국석유상응통계수거작위양본,채취주성분분석법진행종합평개。결과표명,각지표대중국석유안전도적영향권중분별위0.28、0.27、0.10、0.13、0.12、0.10。2000-2010년중국석유안전도총체재0.54~0.64지간파동,처우“약안전”화“불안전”상태。당전,수착석유수구적증가,석유안전형세의연비상엄준,중국응채취절실조시학보석유안전。
Six main factors are selected as evaluation index in order to evaluate the level of Chinese oil security. The evaluation index is reserve-production ratio, reserve replacement rate, external dependence on oil consumption, the three big market average price of crude oil, oil consumption intensity, oil accounts t'or the proportion of energy consumption. Petroleum corresponding statistical data are selected as the sample from 2000 to 2010 in China. The principal components analysis is used for eomprehensive evaluation, which showed that the weight of each index influenced China's petroleum safety is respectively 0.28, 0.27, 0.10, 0.13,0.12, 0.10. China petroleum security degree fluctuated between 0.54-0.64 during the period of 2000-2010, which was in a state of " weak" and " unsafe". At present, oil security situation is still very grim with the increase in oil demand. Measures should be taken to ensure oil security in China.