CAJ | 학술논문

文章借鉴行为金融学中的适应性预期理论和前景理论,在对开发商的土地竞买行为特征进行理论分析的基础上,建立了房价预期对地价作用的非对称动态关系模型,并用中国的数据进行了实证检验。主要研究结论：房地产开发商基于房价历史数据形成未来房价预期,并依据房价预期对土地价值进行判断。开发商的房价预期对地价的作用具有动态性和非对称性。开发商在＂优于预期＂时段更加倾向于风险规避,在＂劣于预期＂时段更加倾向于风险趋向。同时,在＂优于预期＂时段对土地价值评估的增加程度要高于在＂劣于预期＂时段对土地价值评估的降低程度。
문장차감행위금융학중적괄응성예기이론화전경이론,재대개발상적토지경매행위특정진행이론분석적기출상,건립료방개예기대지개작용적비대칭동태관계모형,병용중국적수거진행료실증검험。주요연구결론：방지산개발상기우방개역사수거형성미래방개예기,병의거방개예기대토지개치진행판단。개발상적방개예기대지개적작용구유동태성화비대칭성。개발상재＂우우예기＂시단경가경향우풍험규피,재＂렬우예기＂시단경가경향우풍험추향。동시,재＂우우예기＂시단대토지개치평고적증가정도요고우재＂렬우예기＂시단대토지개치평고적강저정도。
By employing adaptive expectation theory and prospect theo ry in behavioral finance, this paper theoretically analyzes the characteristics of land auction behavior of developers and first constructs a model of the asymmetric dynamic relationship between the expectation of housing prices and land prices. Then it makes an empirical test by the data in China and reaches the following conclusions： firstly, real estate developers form future expectation of housing prices based on the historical data of housing prices and judge land values in accordance with the expectation of housing prices; secondly, the effect of developers＇ expectation of housing prices on land prices is dynamic and asymmetric; thirdly, developers are apt to be risk a- version on the stage of better than expected, and are inclined to be risk lovers on the stage of worse than expected. Moreover, the increase in land value assessment on the stage of better than expected is greater than the reduc- tion in land value assessment on the stage of worse than expected.