CAJ | 학술논문

本文建立了双强度约束下低碳经济增长多目标优化模型，分析了行业能耗强度和能源消费结构的调整对低碳经济增长路径的影响。结果表明，在经济增长、能源消耗与CO2排放协调发展情景中，若“十二五”期间各行业能耗强度和一次能源消费结构遵循“十一五”期间的变化趋势，则对农业、工业和建筑业的经济增长不利，对其他行业有利。在其基础上，若减少工业和建筑业能耗强度的降幅．增加其他行业能耗强度的降幅，可提高农业和建筑业的经济增长速度；优化能源消费结构能减缓工业和建筑业能耗强度的下降压力。且非化石能源比例可达11．4％。若在优化能源消费结构基础上，进一步减少工业和建筑业能耗强度的降幅，对各行业经济增长影响不大，但会增加全国能源消耗和CO2排放。各种情景中服务业增加值比重均可达47％，但进一步上升的潜力不大；全国及各行业能源消耗、CO2排放与经济增长之间均将处于弱脱钩状态。
본문건립료쌍강도약속하저탄경제증장다목표우화모형，분석료행업능모강도화능원소비결구적조정대저탄경제증장로경적영향。결과표명，재경제증장、능원소모여CO2배방협조발전정경중，약“십이오”기간각행업능모강도화일차능원소비결구준순“십일오”기간적변화추세，칙대농업、공업화건축업적경제증장불리，대기타행업유리。재기기출상，약감소공업화건축업능모강도적강폭．증가기타행업능모강도적강폭，가제고농업화건축업적경제증장속도；우화능원소비결구능감완공업화건축업능모강도적하강압력。차비화석능원비례가체11．4％。약재우화능원소비결구기출상，진일보감소공업화건축업능모강도적강폭，대각행업경제증장영향불대，단회증가전국능원소모화CO2배방。각충정경중복무업증가치비중균가체47％，단진일보상승적잠력불대；전국급각행업능원소모、CO2배방여경제증장지간균장처우약탈구상태。
The muhi-objective programming models of low-carbon economic growth under the restriction of double intensity were established. It also analyzed the impact of industry energy consumption intensity and energy consumption structure adjustment on the low-carbon economic growth path. The results show that, the economic growth rate of agriculture, industry and construction would all slow down if the changing tendency of energy intensity of each industry and the changing tendency of primary energy consumption structure from 2010 to 2015 both follow the tendency from 2005 to 2010 in the first multi-objective scenario. Nevertheless, the economic growth rate of other sectors would be improved. On the basis of the first multi-objective scenario, lessening the reduction rate of energy consumption intensity of construction and industry, and enlarging the reduction rate of other industrial energy consumption intensity could improve the economic growth rate of agriculture and construction. Optimizing energy consumption structure could decelerate the pressure of reducing energy consumption intensity of industry and construction. The share of non-fossil energy in its energy mix would reach 11.4% by 2015. Based on the optimization of energy consumption structure, lessening the reduction rate of energy consumption intensity of construction and industry further more has a small effect on the economic growth of all sectors, but could increase energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of the whole nation. In all scenarios, the share of service industry would all reach 47% by 2015, but the additional potential to increase it would be small. The decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth of the whole nation and every sector would be in weak deeoupling relationship. The decoupling relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth of the whole nation would also be in weak decoupling relationship.