中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2013年
6期
103~110
,共null页
产业结构 就业绍构 城市化 VEC模型
產業結構 就業紹構 城市化 VEC模型
산업결구 취업소구 성시화 VEC모형
industrial structure ; employment structure ; urbanization ; VEC Model
本文从宏观和动态的角度对1978年改革以来我国经济系统转型过程中，产业-就业结构变动、升级与人口城市化趋势之间的关联性作实证性分析。时间序列分析结果显示，经济系统内存在产业结构变动→就业结构变动→城市化率的变动的单向因果关系。进一步以城市化率、一二三次产业产值和就业比重为系统内生变量所作的“向量误差修正模型（VEC模型）”分析结果显示：产业-就业结构变动对城市化有较强的短期驱动力，其中，第三产业就业变动的驱动最为强劲；但从长期看，产业-就业结构变动对城市化驱动力逐渐弱化。即按既有的结构变动模式将很难对城市化产生更强劲的推动作用。本研究结果之政策含义是：①惟有通过新的产业-就业结构升级才能对城市化产生更大的驱动力；②欲实现新的结构升级须着力解决第二产业-就业结构偏离度过大的问题：③通过全方位的经济和社会改革破解二元结构的体制机制，方能进一步缩小结构偏离度，推动未来城市化的健康、持续发展。
本文從宏觀和動態的角度對1978年改革以來我國經濟繫統轉型過程中，產業-就業結構變動、升級與人口城市化趨勢之間的關聯性作實證性分析。時間序列分析結果顯示，經濟繫統內存在產業結構變動→就業結構變動→城市化率的變動的單嚮因果關繫。進一步以城市化率、一二三次產業產值和就業比重為繫統內生變量所作的“嚮量誤差脩正模型（VEC模型）”分析結果顯示：產業-就業結構變動對城市化有較彊的短期驅動力，其中，第三產業就業變動的驅動最為彊勁；但從長期看，產業-就業結構變動對城市化驅動力逐漸弱化。即按既有的結構變動模式將很難對城市化產生更彊勁的推動作用。本研究結果之政策含義是：①惟有通過新的產業-就業結構升級纔能對城市化產生更大的驅動力；②欲實現新的結構升級鬚著力解決第二產業-就業結構偏離度過大的問題：③通過全方位的經濟和社會改革破解二元結構的體製機製，方能進一步縮小結構偏離度，推動未來城市化的健康、持續髮展。
본문종굉관화동태적각도대1978년개혁이래아국경제계통전형과정중，산업-취업결구변동、승급여인구성시화추세지간적관련성작실증성분석。시간서렬분석결과현시，경제계통내존재산업결구변동→취업결구변동→성시화솔적변동적단향인과관계。진일보이성시화솔、일이삼차산업산치화취업비중위계통내생변량소작적“향량오차수정모형（VEC모형）”분석결과현시：산업-취업결구변동대성시화유교강적단기구동력，기중，제삼산업취업변동적구동최위강경；단종장기간，산업-취업결구변동대성시화구동력축점약화。즉안기유적결구변동모식장흔난대성시화산생경강경적추동작용。본연구결과지정책함의시：①유유통과신적산업-취업결구승급재능대성시화산생경대적구동력；②욕실현신적결구승급수착력해결제이산업-취업결구편리도과대적문제：③통과전방위적경제화사회개혁파해이원결구적체제궤제，방능진일보축소결구편리도，추동미래성시화적건강、지속발전。
This paper, based on a macro view, dynamically focuses on analyzing the relevance between the upgrade of industrial ＆ employment structure and the urbanization trend, in the process of transformation of China＇ s economic system since 1978. A time sequence analysis shows that in this economic system there is a one-way causality： the change of industrial structure leads to the change of employment structure, which leads to the change of urbanization rate. Using the ＂Vector Error Correction Model （VEC Model） ＂, in which the urbanization rate, output of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries and employment proportion have been taken as endogenous variables, the analytic result shows that the changes of industrial and employment structure are strong short-term driving forces on urbanization, among which the change of the third industry is the strongest; however, in long term this driving force weakens gradually, which means under the existing change pattern it will be difficult to generate more driving force on urbanization. The policy side of implications of this study are： a） Only through upgrading the industrial ＆ employment structure can there be a greater driving force on urbanization, b） To upgrade, efforts must be made to solve the issue that the employment structure of the second industry bears a large deviation, c ） Implementing Omni-directional economical and social reform to crack the mechanism of dual social structure. In this case, the deviation can be narrowed and it will boost China＇s healthy and sustainable urbanization development.
