CAJ | 학술논문

本文以分析师盈利预测分歧、预测误差和股价的市场同步性作为上市公司不透明程度的测度指标，比较了我国商业银行和普通工商企业在透明度上的差异。研究结果表明：分析师对商业银行盈利的预测分歧较小、预测误差较低，银行股价的市场同步性明显低于非银行上市公司，即中国上市银行在财务透明度上优于普通工商企业。本文还发现，虽然分析师预测可能存在羊群效应，但较多的分析师跟踪仍然能降低预测误差和增加股票价格的信息含量，从而增加公司的透明度。
본문이분석사영리예측분기、예측오차화고개적시장동보성작위상시공사불투명정도적측도지표，비교료아국상업은행화보통공상기업재투명도상적차이。연구결과표명：분석사대상업은행영리적예측분기교소、예측오차교저，은행고개적시장동보성명현저우비은행상시공사，즉중국상시은행재재무투명도상우우보통공상기업。본문환발현，수연분석사예측가능존재양군효응，단교다적분석사근종잉연능강저예측오차화증가고표개격적신식함량，종이증가공사적투명도。
Using analyst earnings forecast dispersion, forecast error and stock market synchronicity as measurement indicators for the opacity of listed firms, this paper compares the opaqueness between China＇s listed banks and other non - financial listed firms. We find that the analysts＇ forecasts are more consistent and accurate for banking firms, and the stock prices of banks reflect more firm - specific information and less likely to reflect market information. Those evidences jointly indicate that the banking industry is more transparent. ？ More analysts following, even there may exist some degree of herding, can still increase forecasting accuracy and the information content of stock prices, thus increase corporate transparency. Policy implications are provided in the