CAJ | 학술논문

在人民币升值预期不断加强和经济内外失衡的条件下,央行通过外汇占款渠道所投放的基础货币,在货币乘数的作用下,造成商业银行信贷规模的不断扩张,流动性泛滥。外汇占款余额的不断增加给我国货币政策的实施带来了一些不确定性。在流动性扩张过程中,外汇占款所表现出来的溢出效应,短期内对我国货币政策的影响较小,但长期不可忽视,从而解释了央行的外汇冲销手段只存在短期效应。因此,为了降低外汇占款对我国货币政策的影响,我们应大力发展债券市场,逐步放开资本账户,通过建立人民币离岸金融市场等推动人民币走向国际化。
재인민폐승치예기불단가강화경제내외실형적조건하,앙행통과외회점관거도소투방적기출화폐,재화폐승수적작용하,조성상업은행신대규모적불단확장,류동성범람。외회점관여액적불단증가급아국화폐정책적실시대래료일사불학정성。재류동성확장과정중,외회점관소표현출래적일출효응,단기내대아국화폐정책적영향교소,단장기불가홀시,종이해석료앙행적외회충소수단지존재단기효응。인차,위료강저외회점관대아국화폐정책적영향,아문응대력발전채권시장,축보방개자본장호,통과건립인민폐리안금융시장등추동인민폐주향국제화。
Under the increasing expectation of RMB appreciation and internal and external imbalances of economy, base currency put by the central bank through the channel of foreign exchange leads to the expansion of commercial bank credit scale and proliferation of liquidity in the role of money multiplier. Increasing foreign exchange balance has brought some uncertainty to the implementation of monetary policy in China. In the process of liquidity expansion, spillover effect of foreign exchange has little effect on China＇s monetary policy in the short term,but long-term effects cannot be ignored. That accounts for short-term effects of the central bank＇s write-off means of foreign exchange. Therefore,in order to reduce the effects of foreign exchange on China＇s monetary policy, efforts need to be made to vigorously develop the bond market, the gradual liberalization of the capital account, and to promote the internationalization of RMB through the establishment of offshore financial markets.