CAJ | 학술논문

不完全的城市化使得大多数农民只能在城市得到非正规的就业，“短期”行为和“内卷化”，造成了消费的不足和无法扩大消费。文章通过建立个人多期消费模型，从理论上分析了不完全城市化是如何影响消费的，并建立状态空间数据模型，实证检验了我国不完全城市化对消费的影响。结果表明，不完全城市化导致了长期的消费不足，并且依据个人自身情况的不同，不完全城市化对其消费的形象也不同。充分认识和了解不完全城市化对消费需求的影响，有助于解决我国内需不足的现状，从而转变现有投资和出口的经济增长战略，实现以内需拉动中国的经济增长。解决这些问题不但需要制度的创新，其核心是户籍制度和就业制度，而且还需要紧跟合理的规划和政策性支持。
불완전적성시화사득대다수농민지능재성시득도비정규적취업，“단기”행위화“내권화”，조성료소비적불족화무법확대소비。문장통과건립개인다기소비모형，종이론상분석료불완전성시화시여하영향소비적，병건립상태공간수거모형，실증검험료아국불완전성시화대소비적영향。결과표명，불완전성시화도치료장기적소비불족，병차의거개인자신정황적불동，불완전성시화대기소비적형상야불동。충분인식화료해불완전성시화대소비수구적영향，유조우해결아국내수불족적현상，종이전변현유투자화출구적경제증장전략，실현이내수랍동중국적경제증장。해결저사문제불단수요제도적창신，기핵심시호적제도화취업제도，이차환수요긴근합리적규화화정책성지지。
Incomplete urbanization entails farmers only to be employed informally in cites, and the problems of ＂short-ternl＂ and ＂involution＂, which resuh in a lack of consumption and the inability to expand consumption. Through the establishment of personal consumption model, this paper analyses theoretically how incomplete urbanization affects the consumption. And through the establishment of a panel data model, this paper examines the impact of incomplete urbanization consumplinn in China. The results shrew that incomplete urbanizalion contributes to inadequate consumption in the long term and its impact varies according to indivich,al differences. Insight into the impact of urbanization on consumption will help address the lack of domestic demand and change the existing economic growth strategy of investment and export, to achieve the economic growth stratcgy that China＇s economic will be pulled by domestic demand. To solve these problems requires not only the innovation of the system, the core of which is the household registration system and employment system and the need of proper plan- ning and policy support.