CAJ | 학술논문

本文以城镇人口占总人口比重表征城镇化水平，利用国家统计的旅游经济数据，从理论和实证层面剖析城镇化进程对农村居民旅游消费的影响。结合城镇化内涵和传统消费理论分析，城镇化可以通过消费敏感性、消费示范性、消费棘轮性和消费预防性等作用机制对农村居民旅游消费产生影响。实证结果显示，1994～2011年，城镇化与农村居民旅游消费存在稳定的协整关系，城镇化是农村居民旅游消费增长的单向格兰杰因果作用关系；城镇化通过消费敏感效应和消费棘轮效应对旅游消费产生积极影响，其中敏感效应更强；通过消费预防效应产生消极影响，而消费示范效应不显著，城镇化是刺激农村居民旅游消费的重要力量。随着新型城镇化的深入推进，城镇化对我国农村居民旅游消费和旅游经济增长的潜力也将得到更大的释放。
본문이성진인구점총인구비중표정성진화수평，이용국가통계적여유경제수거，종이론화실증층면부석성진화진정대농촌거민여유소비적영향。결합성진화내함화전통소비이론분석，성진화가이통과소비민감성、소비시범성、소비극륜성화소비예방성등작용궤제대농촌거민여유소비산생영향。실증결과현시，1994～2011년，성진화여농촌거민여유소비존재은정적협정관계，성진화시농촌거민여유소비증장적단향격란걸인과작용관계；성진화통과소비민감효응화소비극륜효응대여유소비산생적겁영향，기중민감효응경강；통과소비예방효응산생소겁영향，이소비시범효응불현저，성진화시자격농촌거민여유소비적중요역량。수착신형성진화적심입추진，성진화대아국농촌거민여유소비화여유경제증장적잠력야장득도경대적석방。
Since reform and opening in 1978, China＇s urbanization rate has been continuously improved, urbani- zation is the inherent growth power of China＇s economy. Similarly, urbanization is an important force to promote the development of tourism economy and tourism consumption. The tourism consumption behavior of rural residents is different from that of the western as a result of the social and economic transformation of rural Chinese, the dual structure in urban and rural economy, and characteristics of the ＂three rural issues＂. With the progresses of urbani- zation level and tourism industry, and the development of integration of urban and rural, the research on mutual rela- tionship between urbanization and tourism consumption of rural residents has a great significance. The research con- structs the theoretical system of tourism consumption of rural residents according to the foreign research results and China＇ s national conditions. Therefore,in this paper, based on the background of urbanization and the characteris- tics of tourism industry,we use the proportion of urban population to total population to represent urbanization, and tourism economic sequence data of National Statistics, analyze the influence of China＇s urbanization on tourism con- sumption of rural residents from the theoretical and empirical side. Firstly, combined with the analysis of the connotation of urbanization and consumption theory, urbanization can through four effects, i. e. , the sensitivity to income, the demonstration of urban residents consumption, the ratchet of traditional consumption habit, and the prevention of income uncertainty, influence on tourism consumption of rural residents. The urbanization not only has a direct impact on tourism consumption of rural residents, also an indirect effect through the four channels. Secondly, the paper employs the ADF unit root test, Engel-Granger Two-step Co-in- tegration Model and Granger Causality Model to empirical examine the long-term equilibrium and causal effect rela- tionship between urbanization and tourism consumption, the results show： there is a long-term stable co-integration between urbanization and tourism consumption of rural residents, urbanization is in the granger causality with tourism consumption growth during the period from 1994 to 2011. The regression models show there are high correla- tion between urbanization and four intermediate variables, and between the variables and tourism consumption of ru- ral residents. The paper uses a multiple regression equation to explain the effect of urbanization on tourism consump- tion of rural residents. The effects of sensitivity and ratchet show significant positive correlation between tourism con- sumption and urbanization, and the sensitive effect is stronger. The effect of prevention plays a strong negative effect on tourism consumption, and the demonstration effect is not significant. The regression model shows urbanization is the important force to stimulate tourism consumption of rural residents. We must be vigilant with the acceleration of urbanization, the income gap between urban and rural fect, which enhance the uncertainty of rural residents＇ tion scale. The negative effects will offset the positive stagnant or even retrogress. residents is widening and the social security system is not per- income and inhibit the further expansion of tourism consump- effects, as a result, tourism consumption will probably remain The paper puts forward three countermeasures as follows ： first, we should improve the quality of urbanization, and promote the income and consumption level of rural residents, and develop tourism market of rural residents with gradually classification. Second, the construction of rural social security system is strengthened to reduce the risk of tourism consumption in order to promote the tourism consumption fairness. Third, we should improve the educational level of rural residents, and strengthen the positive publicity to the tourism consumption, and change the one-sided understanding of tourism consumption, and cultivate good tourism consumption habits. With the deepening of new urbanization, the urbanization will also release greater growth potential to China＇s tourism consumption of rural resi- dents and tourism economic development. Because of the complexity of urbanization, the rural residents and the tourism industry, and data quality problems, this study may have certain limitations. We therefore remain cautious a- bout the conclusions of the studv.