CAJ | 학술논문

伴随着经济发展，二氧化碳排放量逐年上升，并由此引发一系列环境问题。以陕西省为例，对其1978—2011年的二氧化碳排放量和经济增长间的关系进行了研究。结果表明，陕西省二氧化碳排放量和经济增长之间存在长期稳定关系。向量误差修正估计表明，当二氧化碳排放量与经济增长偏离长期均衡关系时，将以19．22％的调整力度拉回均衡状态。Granger因果检验表明，只存在由经济增长到二氧化碳排放量的单向Granger原因，并且脉冲响应分析表明经济增长对二氧化碳排放量的影响是长期的。
반수착경제발전，이양화탄배방량축년상승，병유차인발일계렬배경문제。이합서성위례，대기1978—2011년적이양화탄배방량화경제증장간적관계진행료연구。결과표명，합서성이양화탄배방량화경제증장지간존재장기은정관계。향량오차수정고계표명，당이양화탄배방량여경제증장편리장기균형관계시，장이19．22％적조정력도랍회균형상태。Granger인과검험표명，지존재유경제증장도이양화탄배방량적단향Granger원인，병차맥충향응분석표명경제증장대이양화탄배방량적영향시장기적。
Along with the economic growth, the emissions of carbon dioxide are growing up, and thus lead to lots of environmental problems. This paper has researched the relationship between carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions and economic growth in Shanxi province from 1978 to 2011. The result shows that CO2 emissions and economic growth in Shanxi province has cointegration relationship. The VECM estimated results show that, when the long - run equilibrium relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth is deviated, it wiU be back to a balanced state by 19.22% readjustments. Granger causality test shows that there only exist an unidirectional Granger cause from economic growth to CO2 emissions, and the impulse response analysis reveals that economic growth has a long- term impact on CO2 emissions.