CAJ | 학술논문

政府工作报告从2005年3月以来每年宣示的政府当年通货膨胀目标存在两个月通货膨胀脱锚期、通货膨胀目标期限较短、通货膨胀目标经常调整等问题。期限过短的通货膨胀目标承诺区间非中央银行货币政策所能控制,也加剧了当年货币政策调控的难度,一定程度上还损害了政府信任度。频繁的通货膨胀目标调整与货币政策保持物价稳定的基本任务相违背,也扰乱了消费投资决策。通货膨胀控制信任度丧失使得我国现行的通货膨胀目标制对通货膨胀锚定和通货膨胀预期管理的作用不大,通货膨胀脱锚导致控制通货膨胀的成本较高。为此,建议新一届政府确立跨周期的固定不变的中期或者长期通货膨胀目标。
정부공작보고종2005년3월이래매년선시적정부당년통화팽창목표존재량개월통화팽창탈묘기、통화팽창목표기한교단、통화팽창목표경상조정등문제。기한과단적통화팽창목표승낙구간비중앙은행화폐정책소능공제,야가극료당년화폐정책조공적난도,일정정도상환손해료정부신임도。빈번적통화팽창목표조정여화폐정책보지물개은정적기본임무상위배,야우란료소비투자결책。통화팽창공제신임도상실사득아국현행적통화팽창목표제대통화팽창묘정화통화팽창예기관리적작용불대,통화팽창탈묘도치공제통화팽창적성본교고。위차,건의신일계정부학립과주기적고정불변적중기혹자장기통화팽창목표。
The inflation target that the government has announced since March 2005 has been found with three problems： two months de-anchored period, short-horizon inflation targets and frequently adjusted inflation goals. It was well- known that the monetary policy could not control short-term inflation target, which added to the difficulty faced by the central bank and impaired the government＇s credit. The yearly inflation target adjustment not only runs counter to the monetary policy＇s goal of price stabilization, but also disturbs decisions on consumption and investment. The impairment of reputation in controlling inflation has bad consequences. Firstly, the inflation anchor has less influence on inflation and inflation expectation; secondly, the cost of inflation control is increased. We suggest that the new central government should authorize the people＇s bank of China to publish fixed inflation target （ 3% ） , and the period of responsibility should be defined as cross-business cycles.