国际金融研究
國際金融研究
국제금융연구
Studies of International Finance
2013年
7期
59~67
,共null页
经常账户差额 投资率 结构性因素 周期性因素
經常賬戶差額 投資率 結構性因素 週期性因素
경상장호차액 투자솔 결구성인소 주기성인소
Current Account Balance; Investment Rate; Structural Factors; Cyclical Factors
金融危机之后中国经常账户盈余快速下降,引发了关于经常账户变化到底是周期性的还是结构性的争论。从储蓄投资角度看,近年来经常账户盈余下降主要是投资率的快速上升所致。本文通过对我国投资率的决定因素分析为经常账户变化提供一种解释。将投资率的变动分解为结构性因素、内部周期性因素和外部周期性因素,通过主成分分析和向量误差修正模型对上述三大类指标进行计量分析发现,2007-2012年结构性因素所致的投资率上升占总投资率上升的55.5%,周期性因素的贡献则占36.4%。因此,金融危机后我国经常账户盈余占GDP的比重下降的主要原因是结构性的。
金融危機之後中國經常賬戶盈餘快速下降,引髮瞭關于經常賬戶變化到底是週期性的還是結構性的爭論。從儲蓄投資角度看,近年來經常賬戶盈餘下降主要是投資率的快速上升所緻。本文通過對我國投資率的決定因素分析為經常賬戶變化提供一種解釋。將投資率的變動分解為結構性因素、內部週期性因素和外部週期性因素,通過主成分分析和嚮量誤差脩正模型對上述三大類指標進行計量分析髮現,2007-2012年結構性因素所緻的投資率上升佔總投資率上升的55.5%,週期性因素的貢獻則佔36.4%。因此,金融危機後我國經常賬戶盈餘佔GDP的比重下降的主要原因是結構性的。
금융위궤지후중국경상장호영여쾌속하강,인발료관우경상장호변화도저시주기성적환시결구성적쟁론。종저축투자각도간,근년래경상장호영여하강주요시투자솔적쾌속상승소치。본문통과대아국투자솔적결정인소분석위경상장호변화제공일충해석。장투자솔적변동분해위결구성인소、내부주기성인소화외부주기성인소,통과주성분분석화향량오차수정모형대상술삼대류지표진행계량분석발현,2007-2012년결구성인소소치적투자솔상승점총투자솔상승적55.5%,주기성인소적공헌칙점36.4%。인차,금융위궤후아국경상장호영여점GDP적비중하강적주요원인시결구성적。
Rapid decline of China＇s current account surplus after the financial crisis triggers a debate on whether the change of current account is cyclical or structural. From the savings-investment perspective, the current account decline in recent years is mainly caused by a rapid rise of investment rate. The paper provides an explanation for changes of the current account based on the analysis of the determinants of investment rate. Resolving the changes of investment rate into structural factors, internal cyclical factors and external cyclical factors, we use econometric tools of principal component analysis and vector error correction model to analyze the three above-mentioned indicators and find that the investment rate rise caused by structural factors accounts for 62.51% of total investment rate rise and that caused by cyclical factors accounts for 37.49% from 2007 to 2012. Therefore, the main reason for the current account decline after the financial crisis is structural.
