CAJ | 학술논문

人民币的汇率变动对产业结构的优化升级具有一定影响。根据2000—2011年人民币对美元实际汇率季度数据，运用时间序列VAR模型，根据实际有效汇率对上海市产业结构的影响进行实证分析。结果表明，实际汇率波动与上海市第一产业占比之间不存在协整关系，与第二、第三产业之间存在协整方程，但特定期间对两者的影响程度上存在差异性。政府产业政策的制定需考虑实际有效汇率波动对产业结构的影响。
인민폐적회솔변동대산업결구적우화승급구유일정영향。근거2000—2011년인민폐대미원실제회솔계도수거，운용시간서렬VAR모형，근거실제유효회솔대상해시산업결구적영향진행실증분석。결과표명，실제회솔파동여상해시제일산업점비지간불존재협정관계，여제이、제삼산업지간존재협정방정，단특정기간대량자적영향정도상존재차이성。정부산업정책적제정수고필실제유효회솔파동대산업결구적영향。
In this paper, an empirical analysis of the influence industrial structure in Shanghai under the framework of the VAR of real effective exchange rate on Model is conducted based on the quarterly data of real effective exchange rate between RMB and US dollar from 2000 to 2011. The result demonstrates that there exists no co-integration relationship between the real exchange rate fluctuations and primary industry, while do exist when considering secondary and tertiary industries in Shanghai, but differs during the certain period. Therefore, in respect of its industrial restructuring strategy, the government needs to take the fluctuations of real effective exchange rate into consideration.