CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过实证研究揭示国际油价和国内油价之间的协整关系及我国石油产量、进口量和出口量对石油价格的影响。结果显示：不管增加石油产量还是增加进口量,对于平抑石油价格的影响都将有限,因为我国目前粗放型经济对石油消费需求的过快增长,相对我国石油产量和进口量增加远跟不上需求增速,导致价格不断上涨。随着我国经济结构转型和人口红利消失、有效劳动人口减少,总体经济增速下降,必然导致我国对外资源依存度趋于平缓甚至下降,在现在这个转折时期,一味单纯地渲染能源饥渴甚至能源供应危机是危险的。目前不惜代价、大手笔地收购海外资源是不明智也是严重滞后的举措。
본문통과실증연구게시국제유개화국내유개지간적협정관계급아국석유산량、진구량화출구량대석유개격적영향。결과현시：불관증가석유산량환시증가진구량,대우평억석유개격적영향도장유한,인위아국목전조방형경제대석유소비수구적과쾌증장,상대아국석유산량화진구량증가원근불상수구증속,도치개격불단상창。수착아국경제결구전형화인구홍리소실、유효노동인구감소,총체경제증속하강,필연도치아국대외자원의존도추우평완심지하강,재현재저개전절시기,일미단순지선염능원기갈심지능원공응위궤시위험적。목전불석대개、대수필지수구해외자원시불명지야시엄중체후적거조。
This paper shows how Chinese oil output, import and export influence oil price and reveals the cointegration relationship between international oil price and domestic oil price through empirical approach. Empirical results show whether to increase oil outputs or imports has limited effect on stability of the oil price, because the extensive economy in China has an extremely high growth rate on oil consumption demand, and the increment of Chinese oil output and import volume cannot keep up with the demand growth, so that the oil price keeps rising. Along with China＇ s economic restructuring, disappears of population bonus and decline of population of the effective labor force, the growth rate of domestic economy decreases. All the factors inevitably lead to China＇s dependence of foreign resource to become much more steady or even decline. At this turning point, it is dangerous to simply claim energy-hungry or energy supply crisis. It is also an unwise and grave lag measure to purchase amounts of overseas resources at any cost recently.