CAJ | 학술논문

我国大豆需求量几乎年年增长，但需求量的增长并没有促使我国本土大豆生产量的提升，相反，大豆进口量却出现激增。尤其是我国加入WTO后，大豆进口量已达到国内产量的3倍之多。本文利用ArmingtOn模型估计了1993至2011年我国进口大豆与国产大豆的替代弹性，并计算了由于进口价格变化、关税变动等因素导致的中国大豆进口的福利波动。从短期看，大豆进口引起的福利波动可能更多的是因“大国效应”导致的进口价格上升；从长期来看，因为替代弹性大，这可能会直接导致进口大豆对国内生产的冲击，导致更多的福利损失。因此，我国应充分利用非转基因大豆的比较优势，加大对本国非转基因大豆种植、生产及加工的扶持，积极争取在大豆定价权上有所作为。
아국대두수구량궤호년년증장，단수구량적증장병몰유촉사아국본토대두생산량적제승，상반，대두진구량각출현격증。우기시아국가입WTO후，대두진구량이체도국내산량적3배지다。본문이용ArmingtOn모형고계료1993지2011년아국진구대두여국산대두적체대탄성，병계산료유우진구개격변화、관세변동등인소도치적중국대두진구적복리파동。종단기간，대두진구인기적복리파동가능경다적시인“대국효응”도치적진구개격상승；종장기래간，인위체대탄성대，저가능회직접도치진구대두대국내생산적충격，도치경다적복리손실。인차，아국응충분이용비전기인대두적비교우세，가대대본국비전기인대두충식、생산급가공적부지，적겁쟁취재대두정개권상유소작위。
China＇s demand for soybean grows almost every year, but demand growth did not prompt local soybean pro- duction in China, in contrast, soybean import quantum has surged. Especially after China joined the WTO, soybean im- port quantum reached 3 times as much as domestic production. This paper estimated the substitution elasticity of import soybean and domestic soybean between 1993 and 2011 using Armington model, and calculated welfare volatility of Chi- nese soybean import caused by import prices change and the tariff change, etc. In the short term, welfare volatility caused by soybean import is more likely to because of price rise as the ＂import power effect＂ ; in the long run, because the substitution elasticity is great, which may directly cause impact of imports for domestic production and lead to more welfare losses. Therefore, China should make full use of comparative advantages of non GMO soybeans to increase sup- port in planting, production and processing of non - GM soybean, trying to get more initiatives in soybean pricing.