CAJ | 학술논문

根据交通运输行业的行业分析需要，对现有的投入产出部门进行进一步拆分，并加入不同交通运输方式替代弹性等因素，将CGE模型引入到交通运输行业政策制定分析当中，构建符合行业分析需求的交通运输行业CGE模型。利用这一模型对通行费征收费率变化进行政策模拟分析显示：完全取消通行费后对国民经济总体影响是利好的，但利好不明显，国民经济总量和社会总需求变化在1％以下，87％的关联产业产值增加率在2％以下。取消通行费后对公路货运行业是重大利空，会导致公路货运行业产值下降11％。
근거교통운수행업적행업분석수요，대현유적투입산출부문진행진일보탁분，병가입불동교통운수방식체대탄성등인소，장CGE모형인입도교통운수행업정책제정분석당중，구건부합행업분석수구적교통운수행업CGE모형。이용저일모형대통행비정수비솔변화진행정책모의분석현시：완전취소통행비후대국민경제총체영향시리호적，단리호불명현，국민경제총량화사회총수구변화재1％이하，87％적관련산업산치증가솔재2％이하。취소통행비후대공로화운행업시중대리공，회도치공로화운행업산치하강11％。
Based on the demand of sector analysis of the transportation industry, this article pro-poses that there should be a further splitting of the existing input-output departments and some consideration of the elasticity of different transportation modes＇ substitution so as to introduce CGE model into the analysis of policy-making and to construct a CC-E model to satisfy such de- mand in the transportation industry. When this model was applied in policy-simulation analysis of toll rates changes, it is revealed that the elimination of tolls will lead to a positive result. Howev- er, the benefits may not be significant enough as the variation of GDP and the total social demand are under 1%, and the added rate of about 87 % of the related industry value is below 2 %. What is more, the elimination of tolls will lead to the fall of the value of road freight industry output by about 11%.