CAJ | 학술논문

我国地区间经济发展水平不同，环境管制的严格程度也存在差异，这种差异是否吸引污染密集型产业向环境管制较弱的地区转移？本文先从理论上分析了环境管制与产业区际转移间的关系，提出“污染避难所”效应在中国存在的可能性，进而利用1996—2010年闻省级面板数据进行实证研究，结果证实了该效应的存在：从总体上看，该效应的显现存在一定的滞后，滞后1期时效应最明显；分时段的分析显示，随着我国环境管制强度整体加强和产业结构变化，“污染避难所”效应增强。同时原有污染密集型产业基础较好、区域市场规模小、经济发展水平较低的地区对污染密集型产业的吸引力加强。
아국지구간경제발전수평불동，배경관제적엄격정도야존재차이，저충차이시부흡인오염밀집형산업향배경관제교약적지구전이？본문선종이론상분석료배경관제여산업구제전이간적관계，제출“오염피난소”효응재중국존재적가능성，진이이용1996—2010년문성급면판수거진행실증연구，결과증실료해효응적존재：종총체상간，해효응적현현존재일정적체후，체후1기시효응최명현；분시단적분석현시，수착아국배경관제강도정체가강화산업결구변화，“오염피난소”효응증강。동시원유오염밀집형산업기출교호、구역시장규모소、경제발전수평교저적지구대오염밀집형산업적흡인력가강。
In China, there are differences both on economic developing level and stringency of environmental regulation amongregions. Whether the differences attract pollution intensive industries to migrate to the regions with weaker environmental regulation？ This paper firstly analyzes the relationship between environmental regulation and industry transfer from theoretical point, which proposes that pollution havens effects may exist in China. Then the paper make empirical analysis based on provincial panel data from 1996 to 2010, which verify the effects. Totally, emerging of the effect has some lag. The most obvious effect appears lagging 1 year. Stage analysis shows that ＂pollution haven＂ effect has increased along with strengthen of the overall environmental regulation and industry structure change. Moreover, the regions with good pollution intensive industry foundation, small regional market and low economic development level show more attraction for pollution intensive industries.