CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用中国1987～2008年省级面板数据，研究了人口抚养比下降和老年抚养比上升对经济增长的影响。本文发现：20多年来，人口抚养比下降的“第一次人口红利”效应和老年抚养比上升的“第二次人口红利”效应同时存在，都对中国经济的发展作出了贡献；如果生育率和经济发展模式不变，未来老龄化产生的“第二次人口红利”效应．至多为其损失的“第一次人口红利”的40％；相对于单纯调整人口结构，健全社会保障制度、提高公共教育投入水平，可能是克服老龄化问题的更好途径。
본문이용중국1987～2008년성급면판수거，연구료인구무양비하강화노년무양비상승대경제증장적영향。본문발현：20다년래，인구무양비하강적“제일차인구홍리”효응화노년무양비상승적“제이차인구홍리”효응동시존재，도대중국경제적발전작출료공헌；여과생육솔화경제발전모식불변，미래노령화산생적“제이차인구홍리”효응．지다위기손실적“제일차인구홍리”적40％；상대우단순조정인구결구，건전사회보장제도、제고공공교육투입수평，가능시극복노령화문제적경호도경。
This paper analyzes the effects of the decline of the total dependency ratio and the rise of the elderly on the china economic growth over the last 30 years. This paper finds that： 1 ） the ＂first demographic dividend＂ of the decline of the total dependency ratio and the ＂second demographic dividend＂ of the rise of the elderly both exist and make a contribution to the economic growth; 2） if the fertility rate and developmental pattern remain and the old dependency ratio grow in the future, the gain of the ＂second demographic dividend＂ is at most the 2/5 of the cost of the reversal of the ＂first demographic dividend＂; 3 ） improving the social security system and the public education system may be the better way than the policies which focus too much attention on changing the aging structure.