辽宁师范大学学报:社会科学版
遼寧師範大學學報:社會科學版
료녕사범대학학보:사회과학판
Journal of Liaoning Normal University(Social Science Edition)
2013年
4期
509~514
,共null页
最优通货膨胀率 面板数据 混合回归法
最優通貨膨脹率 麵闆數據 混閤迴歸法
최우통화팽창솔 면판수거 혼합회귀법
the desired inflation; Panel Data; pooled regression
通货膨胀的控制与经济增长的稳定是一对短期的矛盾。同时,两者也都是宏观经济调控的重要目标,平衡两者的关系使得宏观经济平稳运行,则成为各国政府面对的首要问题。两者关系的平衡引发了学术界对最优通货膨胀率的讨论,即在不对经济增长产生显著的负面影响的情况下,什么水平的通货膨胀率是可以接受的?通过使用带有异方差的混合回归法,使用213个国家从1980-2011年的面板数据进行实证分析可以发现,最优通货膨胀率因人均收入的水平而异。具体来说,发达国家的最优通货膨胀率为1%~3%,而发展中国家的最优通货膨胀率上线可以高达10%。基于这个实证结论,各国政府应根据自身实际经济发展状况,确定其通货膨胀的控制标准。
通貨膨脹的控製與經濟增長的穩定是一對短期的矛盾。同時,兩者也都是宏觀經濟調控的重要目標,平衡兩者的關繫使得宏觀經濟平穩運行,則成為各國政府麵對的首要問題。兩者關繫的平衡引髮瞭學術界對最優通貨膨脹率的討論,即在不對經濟增長產生顯著的負麵影響的情況下,什麽水平的通貨膨脹率是可以接受的?通過使用帶有異方差的混閤迴歸法,使用213箇國傢從1980-2011年的麵闆數據進行實證分析可以髮現,最優通貨膨脹率因人均收入的水平而異。具體來說,髮達國傢的最優通貨膨脹率為1%~3%,而髮展中國傢的最優通貨膨脹率上線可以高達10%。基于這箇實證結論,各國政府應根據自身實際經濟髮展狀況,確定其通貨膨脹的控製標準。
통화팽창적공제여경제증장적은정시일대단기적모순。동시,량자야도시굉관경제조공적중요목표,평형량자적관계사득굉관경제평은운행,칙성위각국정부면대적수요문제。량자관계적평형인발료학술계대최우통화팽창솔적토론,즉재불대경제증장산생현저적부면영향적정황하,십요수평적통화팽창솔시가이접수적?통과사용대유이방차적혼합회귀법,사용213개국가종1980-2011년적면판수거진행실증분석가이발현,최우통화팽창솔인인균수입적수평이이。구체래설,발체국가적최우통화팽창솔위1%~3%,이발전중국가적최우통화팽창솔상선가이고체10%。기우저개실증결론,각국정부응근거자신실제경제발전상황,학정기통화팽창적공제표준。
The nexus between inflation and economic growth is a short-term contradiction. At the same time, both of them are significant indicators in macroeconomic regulations. To strike the balance between the two targets, which will promote the stability of the well-being of a country's economy, has become a serious challenge for any government in the world. The linkage between economic growth and inflation has caused a wide discussion in the academic field. In other words, what level of inflation would be acceptable if inflation does not have a significant negative impact on economic growth? By employing pooled regression with the adjustment of heteroskedasticity to analyze data across 213 countries from 1980 to 2011, the re- sults showed that the desired inflation differs according to the income per capita of a country. In details, the desired inflation for developed countries is 1 % to 3 %, and that for developing countries are single-dig- it. Based on the results, we suggest that governments should ensure an appropriate inflation targeting standard with respect to its own economic condition.