CAJ | 학술논문

全球经济一体化的扑朔迷离，在一定程度上动摇了中国投资者对“股市是国民经济晴雨表”这一经典理论的信奉。股市有时超前GDP（国内生产总值）波动，有时滞后于GDP波动的涨跌现象，通常是由宏微观层面上制度安排和国内外经济环境所导致的投资、消费和出口这三驾马车的基本格局所决定。从影响投资、消费和出口的制度安排来看，投资规模变动依赖于制度的程度要大于消费，而出口规模变动对制度的依赖，则取决于国际间的制度安排；GDP波动与股市涨跌在长期内具有较高的相关性，但在短期内有时并不具有明显的相关性；股市涨跌在很大程度上取决于特定时空上的制度安排和市场机制所决定的资金与筹码的供求关系。
전구경제일체화적복삭미리，재일정정도상동요료중국투자자대“고시시국민경제청우표”저일경전이론적신봉。고시유시초전GDP（국내생산총치）파동，유시체후우GDP파동적창질현상，통상시유굉미관층면상제도안배화국내외경제배경소도치적투자、소비화출구저삼가마차적기본격국소결정。종영향투자、소비화출구적제도안배래간，투자규모변동의뢰우제도적정도요대우소비，이출구규모변동대제도적의뢰，칙취결우국제간적제도안배；GDP파동여고시창질재장기내구유교고적상관성，단재단기내유시병불구유명현적상관성；고시창질재흔대정도상취결우특정시공상적제도안배화시장궤제소결정적자금여주마적공구관계。
Global economic integration confusing, to some extent, has shaken the Chinese investors to believe in the classical theory of the stock market is a barometer of the national economy. Stock market volatility is usually determined by the basic pattern of the macro and micro level institutional arrangements and domestic and international economic environment caused by investment, consumption and exports. Judging from the institutional arrangements, changes in the scale of investment depends on the extent of the institution is greater than consumption, and changes in the scale of export dependence on the institution, depends on international institutional arrangements. GDP volatility has a high correlation with the stock market ups and downs in the long term. The stock markets largely depend on the supply and demand of special funds and chips. This paper analyzes the different policy effects of long-term and short-term stock market ups and downs, examines the institutional arrangements, GDP fluctuations and in the stock market ups and downs. This article attempts to build an analytical framework capital and chips the proportion of the stock market ups and downs.