CAJ | 학술논문

改革开放以来,中国农业逐渐呈现出＂半工半耕＂、＂男工女耕＂的农户兼业化特征。农业科技进步对农民收入的影响不仅表现在对农民农业收入增长的直接影响上,同时也体现在对农民非农收入增长的间接影响上。利用中国农村历年的相关统计数据,实证检验中国＂七五＂至＂十一五＂期间农业科技进步与农民的农业收入和非农收入增长的关系后发现：长期内,中国农业科技进步对农民的农业收入增长存在着显著的正向效应,短期内也有利于农民的农业收入的增长,且对农民非农收入增长也起到一定的促进作用。这一结果否定了已有的＂农业技术进步不利于农民收入增长＂的观点,支持了中国依靠农业科技进步促进农民收入增长的政策假设。
개혁개방이래,중국농업축점정현출＂반공반경＂、＂남공녀경＂적농호겸업화특정。농업과기진보대농민수입적영향불부표현재대농민농업수입증장적직접영향상,동시야체현재대농민비농수입증장적간접영향상。이용중국농촌력년적상관통계수거,실증검험중국＂칠오＂지＂십일오＂기간농업과기진보여농민적농업수입화비농수입증장적관계후발현：장기내,중국농업과기진보대농민적농업수입증장존재착현저적정향효응,단기내야유리우농민적농업수입적증장,차대농민비농수입증장야기도일정적촉진작용。저일결과부정료이유적＂농업기술진보불리우농민수입증장＂적관점,지지료중국의고농업과기진보촉진농민수입증장적정책가설。
The relationship between agricultural technology progress and farmers＇income growth has received much attention from scholars in domestic and international society.Since W.Cochrane proposed″Agriculture Step Hypothesis,″the view that agricultural technology progress is unfavorable for farmers＇income growth has been widely disseminated.Some empirical researches support this view,which makes some China＇s agricultural policies that aim to increase farmers＇income by improving the agricultural technology into a confused position.But there are some important weaknesses of these empirical researches：Firstly,they emphasize merely analysis from a micro-perspective.Secondly,they are only base on some statistical data over a specific period of time.Thirdly,a large number of researches pay much attention to the effect of agricultural technology progress on farmers＇income,while few of them take farmers＇ non-agricultural income into consideration.Since the Reforming and Opening,especially along with the increasing industrialization,urbanization,marketization and internationalization,the rural labor force has presented non-agriculture transfer and the Chinese agriculture has apparent multi-development feature of ″half farmers and half workers″and″male workers and female farmers.″Therefore,agricultural technology progress in China should have impact on farmers＇income on both agricultural income growth and non-agricultural income growth,the latter of which is influenced by technological progress indirectly.This paper calculates the rate of agricultural technology progress and its contribution based on the annual time-series data from 1980to 2011in China.The VAR model with Co-integration and impulse response functions are employed to explore the relationships between the agricultural technology progress and farmers＇income growth and non-agricultural income growth as well from 1986to 2010.The result shows that the agricultural technology progress in China positively impacts farmers＇income growth not only in terms of the long term but also in terms of the short term.Additionally,it also increases the non-agricultural income of farmers to some extent and these two variables,that is agricultural technology progress and non-agricultural income,are mutual Granger causes to each other.This empirical result indicates,as the agricultural market reform and industrialization in China,the market of agricultural product gradually becomes open from the closed status at the beginning of reform and opening up and the macro environment of agriculture development in China has experienced profound changes.In this context,on one hand,by adjustment of agricultural structure,optimizing the allocation of agricultural resources,changing the pattern of agricultural economic development,agricultural technology progress has contributed to growth of agricultural economic thus promoting farmers＇income,on one side.On the other hand,agricultural technology progress has promoted non-agricultural income growth of farmers through the rural surplus labor force transfer.Apparently,the result denies the view that agricultural technology progress is unfavorable for farmers＇income growth but gives support to the policy hypothesis that agricultural technology progress could promote farmers＇income growth.The policy implication is as follows：with farmers＇income growth as the goal,the government should increase agricultural research investment,and carry forward agricultural technology innovation and perfect agricultural technology popularization system.On the premise of promoting agricultural marketization as well as stabling and raising the agriculture product price,farmers＇income growth should be the main policy objective and essential evaluation mark of agricultural technology progress.