CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于1995—2010年中国机电产品的进口情况，将贸易引力模型和倍差法结合起来，在分别利用Heckman选择模型处理零贸易流和固定效应模型控制国家层面上异质性偏差的基础上，实证分析了CAFTA建立对中国机电产品进口产生的贸易效应。计量结果显示：CAFTA对中国机电产品的进口存在着显著的贸易创造效应，但没有发生贸易转移效应，因而整体上提高了中国的福利水平。更进一步，如果同时考虑选择性偏差和异质性偏差，CAFTA对中国从东盟进口机电产品的影响，也即贸易创造效应为45．94％，而对中国从非东盟成员国进口机电产品的影响，也即贸易转移效应为27．38％。总体而言，CAFTA的建立对中国机电产品进口产生的净效应，即平均处理效应为14．57％，区域内贸易并没有以贸易转移为代价来实现增长。
본문기우1995—2010년중국궤전산품적진구정황，장무역인력모형화배차법결합기래，재분별이용Heckman선택모형처리령무역류화고정효응모형공제국가층면상이질성편차적기출상，실증분석료CAFTA건립대중국궤전산품진구산생적무역효응。계량결과현시：CAFTA대중국궤전산품적진구존재착현저적무역창조효응，단몰유발생무역전이효응，인이정체상제고료중국적복이수평。경진일보，여과동시고필선택성편차화이질성편차，CAFTA대중국종동맹진구궤전산품적영향，야즉무역창조효응위45．94％，이대중국종비동맹성원국진구궤전산품적영향，야즉무역전이효응위27．38％。총체이언，CAFTA적건립대중국궤전산품진구산생적정효응，즉평균처리효응위14．57％，구역내무역병몰유이무역전이위대개래실현증장。
Based on China＇s import of machinery and electronic products over 1995-2010, this paper conducts an empirical investigation into the trade effects of the CAFTA establishment on China＇s import of machinery and electronic products by combining the trade gravity model with the difference-in-difference method and respectively processing trade zero trade flows with Heckman selection model and fixing national heterogeneity with the fixed effect model. The resuits show that CAFTA has a significant trade creation effect on China＇s import of machinery and electronic products but has no trade diversion effect, thus improving the overall welfare in China. Moreover, if selection bias and heterogeneity deviation are together considered, the CAFTA would have increased China＇s import of machinery and electronic products from ASEAN by 45.94% （trade creation effect）, while meantime the CAFTA would have increased China＇s import of machinery and electronic products from non-ASEAN countries by 27.38% （trade diversion effect）. On the whole, the average treatment effect of the CAFTA establishment on China＇s import of machinery and electronic products is 39.65%, suggesting the increase in regional trade is achieved not at the expense of trade diversion.