CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于2005-2010年中国251个地级城市的面板数据，采用动态面板模型和系统GMM估计方法，实证分析了贸易开放所引致的结构效应对中国三类地方性污染物排放量及其排放强度的影响。结果显示，贸易开放度提高有助于降低烟尘的排放量，而对二氧化硫和废水排放量以及三类污染物的排放强度也都存在负向影响但在统计上均不显著。从弹性值来看，贸易开放的结构效应对中国环境污染的影响普遍较小，而经济增长的规模和技术效应、直接结构效应以及经济活动强度是影响各类污染物排放水平的主要因素。“通过引入交叉项进一步识别决定贸易结构效应的比较优势来源，结果发现，对于二氧化硫和烟尘指标，存在贸易开放带来的污染避风港效应，但由于同时存在要素禀赋效应且更甚于污染避风港效应，最终使得贸易引致的结构效应总体上有利于环境污染的改善而非恶化，不过其影响很有限；而对于废水指标，却发现与污染避风港效应和要素禀赋效应相悖的证据。”贸易引致的结构效应总体上有利于环境污染的改善而非恶化，不过其影响很有限；而对于废水指标，却发现与污染避风港效应和要素禀赋效应相悖的证据。
본문기우2005-2010년중국251개지급성시적면판수거，채용동태면판모형화계통GMM고계방법，실증분석료무역개방소인치적결구효응대중국삼류지방성오염물배방량급기배방강도적영향。결과현시，무역개방도제고유조우강저연진적배방량，이대이양화류화폐수배방량이급삼류오염물적배방강도야도존재부향영향단재통계상균불현저。종탄성치래간，무역개방적결구효응대중국배경오염적영향보편교소，이경제증장적규모화기술효응、직접결구효응이급경제활동강도시영향각류오염물배방수평적주요인소。“통과인입교차항진일보식별결정무역결구효응적비교우세래원，결과발현，대우이양화류화연진지표，존재무역개방대래적오염피풍항효응，단유우동시존재요소품부효응차경심우오염피풍항효응，최종사득무역인치적결구효응총체상유리우배경오염적개선이비악화，불과기영향흔유한；이대우폐수지표，각발현여오염피풍항효응화요소품부효응상패적증거。”무역인치적결구효응총체상유리우배경오염적개선이비악화，불과기영향흔유한；이대우폐수지표，각발현여오염피풍항효응화요소품부효응상패적증거。
Using panel data of China＇s 251 prefecture cities over 6 years （2005-2010）, this paper investigates into the trade-induced composition effect （TICE） on China＇ s environment based on dynamic panel models and System GMM. Estimations from System GMM show that increase in trade openness re- markably reduces soot emissions. The increase in trade openness is also found to decrease SO2 emission, wastewater discharge and the emission intensity of all the tree pollutants, while the statistical manifestation is not significant. The elasticity scale suggests that TICE on China＇s environment is generally small, while the impact from income, factor endowment and the intensity of economic activities are of much more significance. By introducing various interaction terms to in- spect sources of China＇s comparative advantages in trade which determine the work of TICE, we further involve evidences of both pollution haven effect （PHE） and factor endowment effect （FEE） for SO2 and soot index which partly accounts for the small elasticity of TICE as a result of the PHE and FEE work- ing in opposite directions. Wastewater index, however, presents contrary evidences against those by PHE or FEE.