统计研究
統計研究
통계연구
Statistical Research
2013年
7期
97~105
,共null页
季节调整 环比增长率 理论研究 统计实践 比较分析
季節調整 環比增長率 理論研究 統計實踐 比較分析
계절조정 배비증장솔 이론연구 통계실천 비교분석
SA; Chain-based Growth Rate; Theory Research; Statistics Practice; Comparison
国家统计局从2011年4月对外公布经季节调整的包括GDP的四项统计指标的环比数据,这标志着季节调整和环比增长率测算在我国统计工作实践中已经起步。本文从季节调整的理论研究和实践两个方面对各种季节调整模型、国内外理论研究和各国统计工作实践的差异进行比较分析,发现国内外在研究基础、理论和应用研究比例、研究模型的广度和基础理论研究等理论研究方面以及季节调整的指标范围、环比增长率测算、数据的公布等实际工作方面均存在较大差异。这对我国进一步完善季节调整模型和软件,不断提高环比统计数据质量,以及逐步建立月、季度统计调查制度具有重要意义。
國傢統計跼從2011年4月對外公佈經季節調整的包括GDP的四項統計指標的環比數據,這標誌著季節調整和環比增長率測算在我國統計工作實踐中已經起步。本文從季節調整的理論研究和實踐兩箇方麵對各種季節調整模型、國內外理論研究和各國統計工作實踐的差異進行比較分析,髮現國內外在研究基礎、理論和應用研究比例、研究模型的廣度和基礎理論研究等理論研究方麵以及季節調整的指標範圍、環比增長率測算、數據的公佈等實際工作方麵均存在較大差異。這對我國進一步完善季節調整模型和軟件,不斷提高環比統計數據質量,以及逐步建立月、季度統計調查製度具有重要意義。
국가통계국종2011년4월대외공포경계절조정적포괄GDP적사항통계지표적배비수거,저표지착계절조정화배비증장솔측산재아국통계공작실천중이경기보。본문종계절조정적이론연구화실천량개방면대각충계절조정모형、국내외이론연구화각국통계공작실천적차이진행비교분석,발현국내외재연구기출、이론화응용연구비례、연구모형적엄도화기출이론연구등이론연구방면이급계절조정적지표범위、배비증장솔측산、수거적공포등실제공작방면균존재교대차이。저대아국진일보완선계절조정모형화연건,불단제고배비통계수거질량,이급축보건립월、계도통계조사제도구유중요의의。
From April 2011,National Bureau of Statistics announced the seasonally adjusted Chain-based data of four statistical indicators including GDP,This indicates that seasonal adjustment（SA）and Chain-based growth rate is already underway in China＇s statistical work practice.From the seasonal adjustment of theoretical study and practical aspects,the comparison between all kinds of seasonal adjustment model,the domestic and foreign theoretical research and statistical work practice in the world was studied.Found in the domestic and foreign theory research of research base,the proportion of theoretical and applied research,the breadth of the model research and basic theoretical research and in the range of seasonal adjustment indicators,calculation of Chain-based growth rate and data releases practice are quite different.It is important to further improve the seasonal adjustment model and software,continuously improve the quality of the Chain-based statistics data and gradually establish a monthly,quarterly survey system.
