中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2013年
8期
20~25
,共null页
复杂网络 原油贸易 空间格局 差异
複雜網絡 原油貿易 空間格跼 差異
복잡망락 원유무역 공간격국 차이
complex network method; crude oil trade; spatial pattern; difference
本文采用复杂网络分析方法。结合区域分析与相似性分析，比较了十大进口国（地区】原油贸易空间结构差异。复杂网络分析旨在以入度、权重及结构熵勾勒出十大原油进口国（地区）石油贸易的拓扑结构差异。并在拓扑结构分析中结合区域分析以揭示十大贸易国（地区）原油进口贸易空间格局构成之不同；相似性分析则是在拓扑结构和空间结构研究基础上，进一步量化了十大进口国（地区）的空间结构差异程度及区位在进口国（地区）原油贸易空间格局形成中的作用。研究表明，主要进口国与地区的原油进口贸易空间结构存在显著差异。而地理区位差异越大的国家与地区间，贸易空间结构差异越大。除中国外，各原油进口大国与地区更倾向于选择较经济的进口地域：显著的多元化与均质化则导致了中国贸易空间格局的不经济。研究结果提示我们。多元化不应以过多牺牲经济性为前提，中国应权衡所面临的客观环境选择适合区域合作伙伴，才能更好的落实多元化进口策略。切实解决可能面临的石油安全问题。
本文採用複雜網絡分析方法。結閤區域分析與相似性分析，比較瞭十大進口國（地區】原油貿易空間結構差異。複雜網絡分析旨在以入度、權重及結構熵勾勒齣十大原油進口國（地區）石油貿易的拓撲結構差異。併在拓撲結構分析中結閤區域分析以揭示十大貿易國（地區）原油進口貿易空間格跼構成之不同；相似性分析則是在拓撲結構和空間結構研究基礎上，進一步量化瞭十大進口國（地區）的空間結構差異程度及區位在進口國（地區）原油貿易空間格跼形成中的作用。研究錶明，主要進口國與地區的原油進口貿易空間結構存在顯著差異。而地理區位差異越大的國傢與地區間，貿易空間結構差異越大。除中國外，各原油進口大國與地區更傾嚮于選擇較經濟的進口地域：顯著的多元化與均質化則導緻瞭中國貿易空間格跼的不經濟。研究結果提示我們。多元化不應以過多犧牲經濟性為前提，中國應權衡所麵臨的客觀環境選擇適閤區域閤作夥伴，纔能更好的落實多元化進口策略。切實解決可能麵臨的石油安全問題。
본문채용복잡망락분석방법。결합구역분석여상사성분석，비교료십대진구국（지구】원유무역공간결구차이。복잡망락분석지재이입도、권중급결구적구륵출십대원유진구국（지구）석유무역적탁복결구차이。병재탁복결구분석중결합구역분석이게시십대무역국（지구）원유진구무역공간격국구성지불동；상사성분석칙시재탁복결구화공간결구연구기출상，진일보양화료십대진구국（지구）적공간결구차이정도급구위재진구국（지구）원유무역공간격국형성중적작용。연구표명，주요진구국여지구적원유진구무역공간결구존재현저차이。이지리구위차이월대적국가여지구간，무역공간결구차이월대。제중국외，각원유진구대국여지구경경향우선택교경제적진구지역：현저적다원화여균질화칙도치료중국무역공간격국적불경제。연구결과제시아문。다원화불응이과다희생경제성위전제，중국응권형소면림적객관배경선택괄합구역합작화반，재능경호적락실다원화진구책략。절실해결가능면림적석유안전문제。
In this paper, complex network analysis, regional analysis and approximate analysis were employed to compare the difference of spatial structure of crude oil trade among ten countries （ or regions）. The complex network analysis was based on topology indexes such as in-degree, weight and structure entropy, aiming to delineate the topological structures of crude oil trade of each country （or region）. The regional analyses reveal the geographical structures. The approximate analysis measures the differences, and shows the relationship between location and spatial patterns of crude oil trade. Results demonstrate that significant differences exist among the oil importing countries （regions） in terms of spatial pattern of crude oil trade, which tend to enlarge with geographical differences. Except China, other main importing nations pay close attention to economic cost in choosing importing sources, while excessive diversification and homogeneity lead to the less economic spatial pattern in China＇ s crude oil trade in the past years. Based on the study, we conclude that an excellent strategy should contain both diversity and economy. In common senses, the diversification strategy is very important for the oil security of China, but we still recommend that the diversification should be based on the precondition of economy. Only in this way, an efficient, healthy and sustainable oil trade security system is able to be established.
