CAJ | 학술논문

基于我国南方集体林区浙江、江西、福建三省202户农户杉木林经营数据，结合已有生长模型，采用生物置转换和扩展因子法，测算了杉木林生态系统固碳量，并采用修正的Hartman模型，在林地期望价值最大化的决策目标下，估算出了碳汇价格、利率、木材价格变动对杉木林碳汇供给量的影响。结果表明：①最优轮伐期及碳汇供给量与碳汇价格成正相关，与利率、木材价格成负相关。②在碳汇价格变化情况下，最优轮伐期由大到小依次为，劣等地〉中等地〉优等地，相反，碳汇供给量依次为，优等地〉中等地〉劣等地，劣等地的最优轮伐期和碳汇供给量变动幅度要明显大于中等地和优等地。③利率在7％-8％变动时，优等地的最优轮伐期和碳汇供给量均未发生变化；利率在4%-5％变动时，中等地最优轮伐期和碳汇供给量均未发生变化；而在1％-8％的变动区间，劣等地的最优轮伐期和碳汇供给量均在不断缩短和降低。④当木材价格上升10％或下降10％时，对优等地的最优轮伐期和碳汇供给量均未产生影响；对中等地而言，仅当木材价格下降10％时，最优轮伐期和碳汇供给量均发生变动；而对劣等地而言。木材价格上升或下降都对两者产生影响。研究得出如下结论：碳汇价格、利率、木材价格对杉木林经营最优轮伐期及杉木碳汇供给量有重要影响，在碳汇价格、利率、木材价格变化情况下，不同立地条件的碳汇供给价格弹性、利率弹性、木材价格弹性存在显著差异。立地条件通过影响杉木营林成本和产出量，从而对杉木林经营的最优轮伐期及碳汇供给蚤产生较大影响。立地条件越差的地块对碳汇供给薰越敏感。随着碳汇价格逐步上升、利率和木材价格的逐步提高，碳汇供给变化为劣等地大于中等地和优等地，而碳汇供给量为优等地大于中等地和劣等地。基于我國南方集體林區浙江、江西、福建三省202戶農戶杉木林經營數據，結閤已有生長模型，採用生物置轉換和擴展因子法，測算瞭杉木林生態繫統固碳量，併採用脩正的Hartman模型，在林地期望價值最大化的決策目標下，估算齣瞭碳彙價格、利率、木材價格變動對杉木林碳彙供給量的影響。結果錶明：①最優輪伐期及碳彙供給量與碳彙價格成正相關，與利率、木材價格成負相關。②在碳彙價格變化情況下，最優輪伐期由大到小依次為，劣等地〉中等地〉優等地，相反，碳彙供給量依次為，優等地〉中等地〉劣等地，劣等地的最優輪伐期和碳彙供給量變動幅度要明顯大于中等地和優等地。③利率在7％-8％變動時，優等地的最優輪伐期和碳彙供給量均未髮生變化；利率在4%-5％變動時，中等地最優輪伐期和碳彙供給量均未髮生變化；而在1％-8％的變動區間，劣等地的最優輪伐期和碳彙供給量均在不斷縮短和降低。④噹木材價格上升10％或下降10％時，對優等地的最優輪伐期和碳彙供給量均未產生影響；對中等地而言，僅噹木材價格下降10％時，最優輪伐期和碳彙供給量均髮生變動；而對劣等地而言。木材價格上升或下降都對兩者產生影響。研究得齣如下結論：碳彙價格、利率、木材價格對杉木林經營最優輪伐期及杉木碳彙供給量有重要影響，在碳彙價格、利率、木材價格變化情況下，不同立地條件的碳彙供給價格彈性、利率彈性、木材價格彈性存在顯著差異。立地條件通過影響杉木營林成本和產齣量，從而對杉木林經營的最優輪伐期及碳彙供給蚤產生較大影響。立地條件越差的地塊對碳彙供給薰越敏感。隨著碳彙價格逐步上升、利率和木材價格的逐步提高，碳彙供給變化為劣等地大于中等地和優等地，而碳彙供給量為優等地大于中等地和劣等地。
기우아국남방집체림구절강、강서、복건삼성202호농호삼목림경영수거，결합이유생장모형，채용생물치전환화확전인자법，측산료삼목림생태계통고탄량，병채용수정적Hartman모형，재임지기망개치최대화적결책목표하，고산출료탄회개격、리솔、목재개격변동대삼목림탄회공급량적영향。결과표명：①최우륜벌기급탄회공급량여탄회개격성정상관，여리솔、목재개격성부상관。②재탄회개격변화정황하，최우륜벌기유대도소의차위，렬등지〉중등지〉우등지，상반，탄회공급량의차위，우등지〉중등지〉렬등지，렬등지적최우륜벌기화탄회공급량변동폭도요명현대우중등지화우등지。③리솔재7％-8％변동시，우등지적최우륜벌기화탄회공급량균미발생변화；리솔재4%-5％변동시，중등지최우륜벌기화탄회공급량균미발생변화；이재1％-8％적변동구간，렬등지적최우륜벌기화탄회공급량균재불단축단화강저。④당목재개격상승10％혹하강10％시，대우등지적최우륜벌기화탄회공급량균미산생영향；대중등지이언，부당목재개격하강10％시，최우륜벌기화탄회공급량균발생변동；이대렬등지이언。목재개격상승혹하강도대량자산생영향。연구득출여하결론：탄회개격、리솔、목재개격대삼목림경영최우륜벌기급삼목탄회공급량유중요영향，재탄회개격、리솔、목재개격변화정황하，불동입지조건적탄회공급개격탄성、리솔탄성、목재개격탄성존재현저차이。입지조건통과영향삼목영림성본화산출량，종이대삼목림경영적최우륜벌기급탄회공급조산생교대영향。입지조건월차적지괴대탄회공급훈월민감。수착탄회개격축보상승、리솔화목재개격적축보제고，탄회공급변화위렬등지대우중등지화우등지，이탄회공급량위우등지대우중등지화렬등지。
Based on the Chinese fir management data of 202 households in Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Fujian provinces, we estimated the ecosystem carbon sink of Chinese fir using existing growth model and biomass conversion and expansion factor method. Then we estimated the influence of its carbon sink supply under different carbon prices, interest rates and timber prices, with the maximization of land expected value and the modified Hartnmn model. The result shows that ： the optimal rotation age and supply of carbon sink have a positive relationship with carbon price, but has a negative relationship with interest rates and timber price. When the carbon price changes, the optimal rotation age of different site conditions in descending order are inferior land, medium land and excellen land; on the contrary, the supply of carbon sink in descending order are excellent land, medium land and inferiol land. The change of optimal rotation age and carbon sink inferior land is larger than that of medimn land and excellent land. When the interest rate changes from 7% to 8%, the optimal rotation age and supply of carbon sink of excellent land remain the same, but the medium land changes when the interse rate changes from 4% to 5%, and the inferior land changes when the interest rate changes from l%to 8%. When the timber price riss by 10% or decreases by 10%, none of the optimal rotation age and supply of carbon sink changes, and for medium land, the changes happen when the timber price decreases by 10%, but for inferior land the changes happen when the timber price rises or decreases. The conclusions are as follows： the carbon sink prices, interest rates, timber prices all have important impacts on the optimal rotation age and supply of carbon sink. There are significant differences with site conditions among elasticity of carbon sink price, elasticity of imerest rate and elasticity of timber price when they change. The site conditions have an important impact on the optimal rotation age and supply of carbon sink by affecting silvicultural costs and volume of output. The worse the site condition, the more sensitive elasticity of carbon sink, supply. As the price of carbon sink, interest rates and the price of timber gradually rises, the carbon sink change of inferior land is greater than that of medium land and excellent land, but the amount of excellent land is greater than that of medium land and inferior land.