中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2013年
8期
100~106
,共null页
人力资本 经济增长 扩展Solow模型
人力資本 經濟增長 擴展Solow模型
인력자본 경제증장 확전Solow모형
human capital; economic growth; extended Solow model
人力资本综合存量的度量方法有采用产出法分析,也有用投入法来分析;有从理论上推理,也有从经验数据上论证。分析方法有从教育人力资本角度出发。也有从健康人力资本角度出发。而绝大多数文献很少将教育和健康因素同时纳入考虑,仅分析其中一个方面无疑会带来测量的误差。若能同酵考虑教育和健康,由新的度墨方法产生新数据,由此带来新结论或是能对已有结论作进一步地论证。则是对以往文献研究的一个补充。因此,本文从四个维度建立新型人力资本综合测避体系,通过因子分析法对人力资本的综合水平进行了衡量。其中四个维度主要是指教育、劳动力再培切l、身心健康和劳动力合理流动。在此基础上,把人力资本综合存量这一指标引入Solow模型中。构建扩展的Solow模型。利用扩展Solow模型,并结合最新人口统计数据进行实证分析,建立扩展的中国经济增长模型。研究发现人力资本和技术进步正逐渐成为我国经济增长的主要影响因素,劳动力数量对经济增长的影响在逐渐减弱。在我国经济发展的新阶段。如何在控制人口数量和提高经济发展水平方面协调各项工作成为当前的热点问题。为此我们针对教育投入。全民人口素质。中高端人才培养,经济增长方式创新等方面提出一些建议。
人力資本綜閤存量的度量方法有採用產齣法分析,也有用投入法來分析;有從理論上推理,也有從經驗數據上論證。分析方法有從教育人力資本角度齣髮。也有從健康人力資本角度齣髮。而絕大多數文獻很少將教育和健康因素同時納入攷慮,僅分析其中一箇方麵無疑會帶來測量的誤差。若能同酵攷慮教育和健康,由新的度墨方法產生新數據,由此帶來新結論或是能對已有結論作進一步地論證。則是對以往文獻研究的一箇補充。因此,本文從四箇維度建立新型人力資本綜閤測避體繫,通過因子分析法對人力資本的綜閤水平進行瞭衡量。其中四箇維度主要是指教育、勞動力再培切l、身心健康和勞動力閤理流動。在此基礎上,把人力資本綜閤存量這一指標引入Solow模型中。構建擴展的Solow模型。利用擴展Solow模型,併結閤最新人口統計數據進行實證分析,建立擴展的中國經濟增長模型。研究髮現人力資本和技術進步正逐漸成為我國經濟增長的主要影響因素,勞動力數量對經濟增長的影響在逐漸減弱。在我國經濟髮展的新階段。如何在控製人口數量和提高經濟髮展水平方麵協調各項工作成為噹前的熱點問題。為此我們針對教育投入。全民人口素質。中高耑人纔培養,經濟增長方式創新等方麵提齣一些建議。
인력자본종합존량적도량방법유채용산출법분석,야유용투입법래분석;유종이론상추리,야유종경험수거상론증。분석방법유종교육인력자본각도출발。야유종건강인력자본각도출발。이절대다수문헌흔소장교육화건강인소동시납입고필,부분석기중일개방면무의회대래측량적오차。약능동효고필교육화건강,유신적도묵방법산생신수거,유차대래신결론혹시능대이유결론작진일보지론증。칙시대이왕문헌연구적일개보충。인차,본문종사개유도건립신형인력자본종합측피체계,통과인자분석법대인력자본적종합수평진행료형량。기중사개유도주요시지교육、노동력재배절l、신심건강화노동력합리류동。재차기출상,파인력자본종합존량저일지표인입Solow모형중。구건확전적Solow모형。이용확전Solow모형,병결합최신인구통계수거진행실증분석,건립확전적중국경제증장모형。연구발현인력자본화기술진보정축점성위아국경제증장적주요영향인소,노동력수량대경제증장적영향재축점감약。재아국경제발전적신계단。여하재공제인구수량화제고경제발전수평방면협조각항공작성위당전적열점문제。위차아문침대교육투입。전민인구소질。중고단인재배양,경제증장방식창신등방면제출일사건의。
There are two methods to measure the comprehensive stock of human capital: one is using output analysis, and the other is adopting input analysis. Some scholars ean use theoretical reasoning to analyze the comprehensive stock of human capital, and also argue from empirical data. The analysis method of human capital is not only from education, but also from the perspective of healthy human capital. And a overwhehning majority of the literatures rarely take education and health factors into account ; they only analyze one. This will undoubtedly bring measurement error. If we can take both education and health into account, and generate new data by the new measure, there will have a further proof about the existing conclusions and can give us the new conclusions. This is also a supplement to the previous literatures. Therefore, in this paper we firstly use a new measurement system of human capital to measure the level of human capital by factor analysis. This measurement system contains four factors including education, labor, physical and mental health and the rational flow of labor. On this basis, we introduce human capital stock indicators into the Solow model, and build the extension of the Solow model. Then the empirical analysis is done with the extended Solow model, and combined with the latest demographic data. With the analysis, we establish the expansion of China' s economic growth model. From the economic growth model, we find that human capital and technological progress is becoming main factors influencing Chinese economy growth, while the amount of labor becomes more inclined to play an insignificant role in this process. In the new stage of China' s economic development, how to control our population and improve the economic development has become a hot issue in the current society. At last, we offer some suggestions about education investment, universal quality of the population, the high-end talent cultivation, and the mode of economic growth and innovation.