CAJ | 학술논문

通过在两国随机动态一般均衡模型中引入汇率制度和Calvo型贷款利率等因素，对特征事实以及人民币汇率和美国量化宽松政策等问题进行了分析，结果表明本文模型能够解释我国政策传导特征事实，在美国实施量化宽松政策的条件下，加快汇率调整，实行更自由的浮动汇率不能有效降低贸易不平衡，但会降低中国产出，保持汇率一定程度的稳定能够实现中美两国产出共同增长，中国应坚持循序渐进的汇改原则。
통과재량국수궤동태일반균형모형중인입회솔제도화Calvo형대관리솔등인소，대특정사실이급인민폐회솔화미국양화관송정책등문제진행료분석，결과표명본문모형능구해석아국정책전도특정사실，재미국실시양화관송정책적조건하，가쾌회솔조정，실행경자유적부동회솔불능유효강저무역불평형，단회강저중국산출，보지회솔일정정도적은정능구실현중미량국산출공동증장，중국응견지순서점진적회개원칙。
Empirical evidence from VARs indicates that credit supply shock of China stimulate co - movement of Sino - US output ,the correlation coefficient between Sino - US output is 0. 785. In this paper, we show that a two country dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky loan rate can account for these ＇ stylized facts＇ . The results of simulation show that exchange rate is just a link of policy transmission chain, and is not the dominant factor to determine the trade imbalance, whereas a fast adjustment of exchange rate will reduce China output, and raise fluctuation of foreign output and real exchange rate, China＇s exchange rate reform should be advanced in an orderly way under the principle of gradual progress.