CAJ | 학술논문

本文从均衡名义汇率人手，构建人民币均衡汇率的“回溯-前瞻”分析框架，从外汇市场微观主体行为分析出发，揭示均衡条件下货币供给流动性与人民币名义汇率之间的稳定关联，进而测算中短期内人民币汇率的合理均衡水平。在此基础上，通过求解涉外经济微观行为的宏观条件，尝试结合相对于均衡名义汇率的汇率失调及人民币汇率风险溢价，进行本外币政策协调性的量化评估。实证分析表明近期人民币名义汇率已接近均衡，但本外币政策协调较为迫切。后危机时代美元量化宽松货币政策冲击下，应实现人民币国际化进程中我国货币政策与汇率政策的相互协调，以加快汇率形成机制改革而非追求现实汇率接近均衡水平为重点，进一步推进人民币汇率市场化。
본문종균형명의회솔인수，구건인민폐균형회솔적“회소-전첨”분석광가，종외회시장미관주체행위분석출발，게시균형조건하화폐공급류동성여인민폐명의회솔지간적은정관련，진이측산중단기내인민폐회솔적합리균형수평。재차기출상，통과구해섭외경제미관행위적굉관조건，상시결합상대우균형명의회솔적회솔실조급인민폐회솔풍험일개，진행본외폐정책협조성적양화평고。실증분석표명근기인민폐명의회솔이접근균형，단본외폐정책협조교위박절。후위궤시대미원양화관송화폐정책충격하，응실현인민폐국제화진정중아국화폐정책여회솔정책적상호협조，이가쾌회솔형성궤제개혁이비추구현실회솔접근균형수평위중점，진일보추진인민폐회솔시장화。
Based on the equilibrium nominal exchange rate, this paper constructs a ＂backward - looking＂ and ＂forward - looking＂ analysis framework. Starting from the microeconomic subject analysis in the foreign exchange market, this paper analyses the interconneetedness between the RMB nominal exchange rate and money supply liquidity under balanced conditions, and estimates the RMB equilibrium exchange rate in the short and medium term. On this basis, the macroeconomic conditions of foreign economic microscopic behaviors are further solving. Exchange rate misalignment and the RMB exchange rate risk premium are used to assess the coordination pressure between monetary policy and exchange rate policy. The empirical analysis results show that the RMB nominal exchange rate has been close to its equilibrium level, but the policy coordination is more urgent. In the post - crisis era under the dollar quantitative easing monetary policy shocks, the central bank faces a balance and choice between the RMB exchange rate market -oriented promoting and monetary policy coordination pressure commitment.