科技进步与对策
科技進步與對策
과기진보여대책
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
2013年
15期
61~68
,共null页
制造业价值链 向量自回归（VAR）模型 技术创新 生产性服务业 产业集群指数 制造业规模
製造業價值鏈 嚮量自迴歸（VAR）模型 技術創新 生產性服務業 產業集群指數 製造業規模
제조업개치련 향량자회귀（VAR）모형 기술창신 생산성복무업 산업집군지수 제조업규모
Value Chain of Manufacturing Industry ; Vector Auto-Regressive （ VAR ） Model ; Technology Innovation ; Producer Services Industry ; Industry Cluster Index ; Manufacturing Industry Scale
以向量自回归（VAR）模型为基础,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、方差分解和脉冲响应分析等技术,综合考察了技术创新、生产性服务业、产业集群、制造业规模等因素对江苏制造业价值链攀升的影响。研究发现：制造业价值链、技术创新、生产性服务业三者之间存在长期均衡关系,且生产性服务业是制造业价值链的Granger原因,制造业价值链是技术创新的Granger原因,但技术创新不是制造业价值链的Granger原因;脉冲响应和方差分解表明,各因素对制造业价值链攀升的影响顺序依次是生产性服务业、技术创新、产业集群指数和制造业规模,它们对制造业价值链总方差的贡献分别为28.1%、20.5%、6.3%和2.6%,说明四者对制造业价值链攀升具有重大影响,但生产性服务业影响更大。据此,提出了加快发展生产性服务业、加大技术创新力度、加速产业集群升级、壮大企业规模等政策建议。
以嚮量自迴歸（VAR）模型為基礎,運用協整檢驗、格蘭傑因果檢驗、方差分解和脈遲響應分析等技術,綜閤攷察瞭技術創新、生產性服務業、產業集群、製造業規模等因素對江囌製造業價值鏈攀升的影響。研究髮現：製造業價值鏈、技術創新、生產性服務業三者之間存在長期均衡關繫,且生產性服務業是製造業價值鏈的Granger原因,製造業價值鏈是技術創新的Granger原因,但技術創新不是製造業價值鏈的Granger原因;脈遲響應和方差分解錶明,各因素對製造業價值鏈攀升的影響順序依次是生產性服務業、技術創新、產業集群指數和製造業規模,它們對製造業價值鏈總方差的貢獻分彆為28.1%、20.5%、6.3%和2.6%,說明四者對製造業價值鏈攀升具有重大影響,但生產性服務業影響更大。據此,提齣瞭加快髮展生產性服務業、加大技術創新力度、加速產業集群升級、壯大企業規模等政策建議。
이향량자회귀（VAR）모형위기출,운용협정검험、격란걸인과검험、방차분해화맥충향응분석등기술,종합고찰료기술창신、생산성복무업、산업집군、제조업규모등인소대강소제조업개치련반승적영향。연구발현：제조업개치련、기술창신、생산성복무업삼자지간존재장기균형관계,차생산성복무업시제조업개치련적Granger원인,제조업개치련시기술창신적Granger원인,단기술창신불시제조업개치련적Granger원인;맥충향응화방차분해표명,각인소대제조업개치련반승적영향순서의차시생산성복무업、기술창신、산업집군지수화제조업규모,타문대제조업개치련총방차적공헌분별위28.1%、20.5%、6.3%화2.6%,설명사자대제조업개치련반승구유중대영향,단생산성복무업영향경대。거차,제출료가쾌발전생산성복무업、가대기술창신력도、가속산업집군승급、장대기업규모등정책건의。
This article takes the vector auto-regressive （ VAR ） model as a basis , and uses the cointegration test , granger causality test , variance decomposition and impulse response analysis technology to inspect the influence of technology innovation , producer services industry , industry cluster and manufacturing industry scale factors on the value chain of Jiangsu manufacturing industry upgrade comprehensively.Research finds that value chain of manufacturing industry , technology innovation and producer services industry have a long term equilibrium relationship , and producer services industry is the Granger reason of value chain of manufacturing industry , value chain of manufacturing industry is the Granger reason of technology innovation , but technological innovation is not the Granger reason of the value chain of manufacturing industry ; Pulse and variance decomposition show that the order that each factor influences value chain of manufacturing industry is production services , technology innovation , industry cluster index and manufacturing industry scale , their contribution respective to the total variance of value chain of manufacturing industry are 28.1% , 20.5% , 6.3%and 2.6% , which explains that the four factors have important influence on value chain of manufacturing industry upgrade , but the influence of producer services is more bigger.Accordingly , this article puts forward to some policy suggestions of speeding up the development of production services , increasing the technical innovation , accelerating industrial cluster upgrade and expanding scale of enterprise.
