财贸经济
財貿經濟
재무경제
Finance & Trade Economics
2013年
8期
18~26
,共null页
伏润民 缪小林 王敏 杨雅琴
伏潤民 繆小林 王敏 楊雅琴
복윤민 무소림 왕민 양아금
公共财政安全 监测机制 预警机制 保障体系
公共財政安全 鑑測機製 預警機製 保障體繫
공공재정안전 감측궤제 예경궤제 보장체계
Public Financial Security, Monitoring Mechanism, Early-warning Mechanism, Guarantee System
特定的社会制度和经济基础使我国在较长的时期内保持良好的经济系统安全,但这并不能说明没有潜在系统性风险,或未来不会出现系统经济风险。从财政运行视角看,公共财政建立过程中的财政支出扩张、收入不确定、政府债务膨胀等问题已经成为财政安全的隐患,如果财政风险得不到有效的预警与及时的化解,由财政危机引发整个社会经济危机爆发的可能性将极其严重。为此,本文在重塑我国公共财政安全内涵理念的基础上,从监测、预警和保障三个角度,构建我国公共财政安全监测预警机制的理论框架。最后,提出进一步研究的展望。
特定的社會製度和經濟基礎使我國在較長的時期內保持良好的經濟繫統安全,但這併不能說明沒有潛在繫統性風險,或未來不會齣現繫統經濟風險。從財政運行視角看,公共財政建立過程中的財政支齣擴張、收入不確定、政府債務膨脹等問題已經成為財政安全的隱患,如果財政風險得不到有效的預警與及時的化解,由財政危機引髮整箇社會經濟危機爆髮的可能性將極其嚴重。為此,本文在重塑我國公共財政安全內涵理唸的基礎上,從鑑測、預警和保障三箇角度,構建我國公共財政安全鑑測預警機製的理論框架。最後,提齣進一步研究的展望。
특정적사회제도화경제기출사아국재교장적시기내보지량호적경제계통안전,단저병불능설명몰유잠재계통성풍험,혹미래불회출현계통경제풍험。종재정운행시각간,공공재정건립과정중적재정지출확장、수입불학정、정부채무팽창등문제이경성위재정안전적은환,여과재정풍험득불도유효적예경여급시적화해,유재정위궤인발정개사회경제위궤폭발적가능성장겁기엄중。위차,본문재중소아국공공재정안전내함이념적기출상,종감측、예경화보장삼개각도,구건아국공공재정안전감측예경궤제적이론광가。최후,제출진일보연구적전망。
In a long period, specific society system and economic foundation keep China's economic system stay safe, but it does not mean that we don't have the potential systemic risk, or there won't appear systematic economic risk in the future. From the perspective of fiscal operation, the problems produced in the process of establishment of public finance, such as expansion of financial expenditure, uncertain income and expansion of government debt, have become the potential risks of financial safety. If the financial risks lack effective early-warning and defusing in time, the possibility of the outbreak of the whole social economic crisis caused by financial crisis will be extremely serious. Therefore, based on remodeling the connotation and idea of China's public financial security, this paper builds the theoretical framework of the mechanism of China's public financial security monitoring and early-warning from three views of monitoring, early-warning and guarantee. Finally, it provides prospects for further research.