CAJ | 학술논문

文章关注我国新出口市场中企业的进入顺序对其出口持续时间的影响。由于首个进入的先锋企业对其他企业有正外部性,考察它在存活率上是否占有优势具有重要的政策含义。基于中国海关的月度出口数据,文章对2002年新市场的先锋企业和跟随企业进行了生存分析。结果显示,在新市场中企业的存活率整体较低;先锋企业在早期的存活率高于跟随企业,但这种优势保持的时间较短;若集中分析存活3个月以上的企业,则发现跟随企业平均出口持续时间更长。文章进一步采用Cox比例风险模型进行了回归分析,发现在控制了目的地国家、产业以及企业层面的特征以后,以上现象依然存在且非常稳健。由此,文章建议国家对先锋企业进行适度补贴。
문장관주아국신출구시장중기업적진입순서대기출구지속시간적영향。유우수개진입적선봉기업대기타기업유정외부성,고찰타재존활솔상시부점유우세구유중요적정책함의。기우중국해관적월도출구수거,문장대2002년신시장적선봉기업화근수기업진행료생존분석。결과현시,재신시장중기업적존활솔정체교저;선봉기업재조기적존활솔고우근수기업,단저충우세보지적시간교단;약집중분석존활3개월이상적기업,칙발현근수기업평균출구지속시간경장。문장진일보채용Cox비례풍험모형진행료회귀분석,발현재공제료목적지국가、산업이급기업층면적특정이후,이상현상의연존재차비상은건。유차,문장건의국가대선봉기업진행괄도보첩。
This paper analyzes the effect of firm sequence of entry into new export markets on firm export duration. Because of the positive externa- lity of the first firm that enters into the market, namely the pioneer firm, the analysis of the advantage of its survival rate is of great policy implica- tion. Based on the monthly export data from China customs, this paper makes a survival analysis of the pioneer firms and their followers in new export markets of 2002. Results are shown as follows： firstly, the survival rates of en- trants in new markets are overall low; secondly, the early survival rate of the pio- neer firm is higher than the ones of the followers, but this advantage could not last long; thirdly, the analysis of the survival of firms with more than three months indicates that the followers present longer average export duration. The regression analysis by the adoption of a Cox proportional hazards model reaches the conclu- sion that, after the control of the characteristics of state, industry and firm levels with regard to the destinations, the findings above-mentioned still exist and are very robust. Therefore, it proposes that governments should provide appropriate adequate subsidies for pioneer firms.