CAJ | 학술논문

随着我国中西部地区经济发展加速,东部沿海地区工资水平吸引力下降,劳动力回流现象日益显著。杭州市虽未出现大规模劳动力回流,但也初现端倪。实证分析杭州市外来劳动力与经济数据,可以发现外来劳动力增长率与经济增长率之间的一致性是有条件的,即当有效就业率低于＂就业充足临界值＂时,劳动力回流对经济增长的影响可以忽略,反之,劳动力回流会拉低经济增长率。在我国市场化改革逐渐深化的背景下,杭州市有效就业率将长期处于高位,大力发展第三产业,加快流动人口本地城镇化,避免劳动力大规模回流,有利于经济长期稳定增长。
수착아국중서부지구경제발전가속,동부연해지구공자수평흡인력하강,노동력회류현상일익현저。항주시수미출현대규모노동력회류,단야초현단예。실증분석항주시외래노동력여경제수거,가이발현외래노동력증장솔여경제증장솔지간적일치성시유조건적,즉당유효취업솔저우＂취업충족림계치＂시,노동력회류대경제증장적영향가이홀략,반지,노동력회류회랍저경제증장솔。재아국시장화개혁축점심화적배경하,항주시유효취업솔장장기처우고위,대력발전제삼산업,가쾌류동인구본지성진화,피면노동력대규모회류,유리우경제장기은정증장。
With the accelerated economic development of the central and western regions,the attraction of high salary in the eastern coastal regions decreased,and now the migration return becomes a significant phenomenon.Although the large-scale return of labors does not appear in Hangzhou,it has already been nascent.Based on the empirical analysis of foreign labor and economic data of Hangzhou City,it proves that the consistency between the migrant labor growth rate and economic growth rate is conditional,which means when the effective employment rate is lower than the ＂enough employment threshold＂,the impact of the return of labors can be omitted,otherwise,the migration return would lower the rate of economic growth.In the context of deepening marketability reform of China,effective employment rate in Hangzhou will maintain at a high level for a long time.It is recommended to develop the tertiary industry,speed up the flow of population urbanization to avoid large-scale return,and facilitate the long-term and stable economic growth.