CAJ | 학술논문

分析了我国情报机构服务和预测性情报服务的状况,指出预测性情报服务是我国情报服务的发展趋势。阐述了预测性情报服务的内涵和外延,预测性情报服务与情报服务和文献服务的关系。探讨了预测性情报服务的关键性问题,并从情报工作者和政府两个层面提出了做好预测性情报服务的策略。最后得出三点结论与启示：第一,情报预测是情报研究的内容之一;第二,情报研究不仅是要研究解决当前问题,更重要的是要有长远眼光,能预测未来,起到参谋作用,以趋利避害;第三,政府应出台相应措施,推动预测服务的发展。
분석료아국정보궤구복무화예측성정보복무적상황,지출예측성정보복무시아국정보복무적발전추세。천술료예측성정보복무적내함화외연,예측성정보복무여정보복무화문헌복무적관계。탐토료예측성정보복무적관건성문제,병종정보공작자화정부량개층면제출료주호예측성정보복무적책략。최후득출삼점결론여계시：제일,정보예측시정보연구적내용지일;제이,정보연구불부시요연구해결당전문제,경중요적시요유장원안광,능예측미래,기도삼모작용,이추리피해;제삼,정부응출태상응조시,추동예측복무적발전。
The paper analyzed the current states of the intelligence agency service and the predictive intelligence service in China and pointed out that the later would be the developing trend of China＇s intelligence services.The ideas and scopes of the predictive intelligence service,as well as its relationship with intelligence services and documentation services were elaborated.Key points about it were discussed and some strategies for a better predictive intelligence service were put forward in terms of the intelligence staff and the government.It was concluded that intelligence prediction was one part of the intelligence research which not only researches and solved the current problems but also predicted the ones in the long run.In that case the prediction could be referred to so that something unfavorable would be avoided.In addition,the government should come up with related measures to promote the development of the predictive intelligence service.