财经研究
財經研究
재경연구
The Study of Finance and Economics
2013年
9期
19~34
,共null页
财政支出 挤出效应 挤入效应 马尔可夫区制转移误差修正模型
財政支齣 擠齣效應 擠入效應 馬爾可伕區製轉移誤差脩正模型
재정지출 제출효응 제입효응 마이가부구제전이오차수정모형
fiscal expenditure; crowding-out effect; crowding-in effect;MS-VECM
文章利用1990-2012年的季度数据，采用变参数的MS—VECM模型考察了我国财政支出与私人投资的区制状态、转移概率和区制相关性。研究发现，在不同的经济发展阶段，财政支出对私人投资的影响不同，表现出挤出效应和挤入效应交替的区制转移特征。进一步研究还发现，挤出效应主要发生在财政支出增速较快和经济过热、通胀压力较大的阶段。文章结果表明，为了避免挤出效应的发生，在财政支出的融资安排上应考虑私人部门的融资约束，避免对私人投资的挤占，并且在经济过热或通胀压力较大时应适时淡出扩张性财政政策。
文章利用1990-2012年的季度數據，採用變參數的MS—VECM模型攷察瞭我國財政支齣與私人投資的區製狀態、轉移概率和區製相關性。研究髮現，在不同的經濟髮展階段，財政支齣對私人投資的影響不同，錶現齣擠齣效應和擠入效應交替的區製轉移特徵。進一步研究還髮現，擠齣效應主要髮生在財政支齣增速較快和經濟過熱、通脹壓力較大的階段。文章結果錶明，為瞭避免擠齣效應的髮生，在財政支齣的融資安排上應攷慮私人部門的融資約束，避免對私人投資的擠佔，併且在經濟過熱或通脹壓力較大時應適時淡齣擴張性財政政策。
문장이용1990-2012년적계도수거，채용변삼수적MS—VECM모형고찰료아국재정지출여사인투자적구제상태、전이개솔화구제상관성。연구발현，재불동적경제발전계단，재정지출대사인투자적영향불동，표현출제출효응화제입효응교체적구제전이특정。진일보연구환발현，제출효응주요발생재재정지출증속교쾌화경제과열、통창압력교대적계단。문장결과표명，위료피면제출효응적발생，재재정지출적융자안배상응고필사인부문적융자약속，피면대사인투자적제점，병차재경제과열혹통창압력교대시응괄시담출확장성재정정책。
By using the quarterly data from 1990 to 2012, this paper es- timates the regime states, transition probability, and the regime correlation between fiscal expenditure and private investment by applying MS-VECM with varying parameters. It reaches the conclusion that in different economic development stages, the effects of fiscal expenditure on private investment vary, which are featured by regime transition with the alternation of crowing -out and crowding-in effects. Further study also shows that the crowing-out effect refers to the stages with the rapid growth of fiscal expenditure, over- heated economy and high inflation pressure. It shows that, to avoid the crowding-out effect, it should take the financing constraints of private sec- tors into account in financing arrangement of fiscal expenditure, and should timely make expansionary fiscal policy fade out under overheated economy or high inflation pressure.
