CAJ | 학술논문

基于广义Bass模型，对比中国与世界其他风能先进国家在技术创新水平和模仿水平上的差异，考察外生政策冲击对中国风能技术扩散的影响。利用常规Bass模型、广义Bass模型、Logistic模型和Gompertz模型等多个预测模型对中国未来风能技术的扩散趋势进行短期预测，并对其预测精度和结果差异进行对比和分析。研究结果表明，中国风能技术市场的创新水平显著低于其他风能技术较为先进的欧美国家，甚至低于同为发展中国家的印度。模仿水平在所有考察国家中最高；中国风能技术扩散过程受指数冲击和矩形冲击的影响，但两种外部冲击的影响程度均较弱；中国风能技术急速增长的阶段已经过去，且于2010年达到增长的阶段性峰值点，未来的增速将显著放缓。针对上述结论给出促进中国风能长效发展的相关政策建议。
기우엄의Bass모형，대비중국여세계기타풍능선진국가재기술창신수평화모방수평상적차이，고찰외생정책충격대중국풍능기술확산적영향。이용상규Bass모형、엄의Bass모형、Logistic모형화Gompertz모형등다개예측모형대중국미래풍능기술적확산추세진행단기예측，병대기예측정도화결과차이진행대비화분석。연구결과표명，중국풍능기술시장적창신수평현저저우기타풍능기술교위선진적구미국가，심지저우동위발전중국가적인도。모방수평재소유고찰국가중최고；중국풍능기술확산과정수지수충격화구형충격적영향，단량충외부충격적영향정도균교약；중국풍능기술급속증장적계단이경과거，차우2010년체도증장적계단성봉치점，미래적증속장현저방완。침대상술결론급출촉진중국풍능장효발전적상관정책건의。
This paper investigates the differences of innovation and imitation in wind technology between China and some other countries with leading wind technology based on Generalized Bass models, and explores the impacts of exogenous policy interven- tion on China＇s wind technology diffusion. Short-term forecasts and prediction accuracy of the China＇s wind technology in the fu- ture are provided and contrasted by performing Standard Bass model, general Bass model, Logistic model and Gompertz model. We find that. the level of wind technology innovation of China is significantly lower compared to the wind-advanced American and European countries and some developing countries such as India, while the imitation level is significantly higher than all sampled countries, both exponential shock and rectangular shock are found to have a limited and weak effect in the development of wind technology diffusion, rapid development process of wind is over with the peak occurred in 2010, and the wind adoption process is in its middle stage and the speed of technology diffusion is predicted to slow down in the future. Based on the conclusions, we fi- nally propose some policy suggestions for the sustainable development of wind technology.