CAJ | 학술논문

应用完全自主开发的全球多区域CGE模型（GAGE模型），对中国、印度、美国和欧盟四个区域的减排成本及经济影响进行了系统研究，从边际减排成本、GDP损失率、边际社会减排成本以及减排对部门总产出和出口的影响多个方面进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：欧盟的边际减排成本和GDP损失率显著高于其他三个区域，美国的边际减排成本约为中国的6倍，但其GDP损失率却与中国相当，其边际社会减排成本也只是略高于中国。生产部门中总产出影响最大的是能源部门，其次是高耗能的化工和钢铁部门，美国和欧盟的交通部门也受到较大冲击。
응용완전자주개발적전구다구역CGE모형（GAGE모형），대중국、인도、미국화구맹사개구역적감배성본급경제영향진행료계통연구，종변제감배성본、GDP손실솔、변제사회감배성본이급감배대부문총산출화출구적영향다개방면진행료비교분석。연구결과표명：구맹적변제감배성본화GDP손실솔현저고우기타삼개구역，미국적변제감배성본약위중국적6배，단기GDP손실솔각여중국상당，기변제사회감배성본야지시략고우중국。생산부문중총산출영향최대적시능원부문，기차시고모능적화공화강철부문，미국화구맹적교통부문야수도교대충격。
A global multi-regional CGE model （GAGE model） which is completely self-developed is used to study systematically abatement cost and economic impacts of four regions, i.e. China, India, the United States and the European Union. And comparison analysis is performed on marginal abatement cost,GDP loss, marginal social cost of abatement, and the impacts of the gross output and export of sectors. The results show that, the marginal abatement costs and GDP loss rate of the European Union are significantly higher than that of the other three regions; the marginal abatement costs of the United States is about six times that of China, while its GDP loss rate is quite close to that of China. The gross output of the energy sectors are affected most greatly followed by energy intensive sectors, namely chemical and steel sectors, and the transport sectors in the United States and the European Union are also apparently affected.