生态经济
生態經濟
생태경제
Ecological Economy
2013年
9期
125~127
,共null页
秦皇岛港 吞吐量预测 三次指数平滑法
秦皇島港 吞吐量預測 三次指數平滑法
진황도항 탄토량예측 삼차지수평활법
Qinhuangdao Port; throughput forecast; three exponential smoothing method
秦皇岛港是我国北方以煤炭出口为主的重要物流枢纽。文章分析了秦皇岛港煤炭吞吐量与时间序列的二次曲线变化趋势,在此基础上采用1991~2009年秦皇岛港历史煤炭吞吐量数据,通过三次指数平滑法对2010年煤炭吐量进行预测,为把秦皇岛港打造“物流港”提供了理论依据。
秦皇島港是我國北方以煤炭齣口為主的重要物流樞紐。文章分析瞭秦皇島港煤炭吞吐量與時間序列的二次麯線變化趨勢,在此基礎上採用1991~2009年秦皇島港歷史煤炭吞吐量數據,通過三次指數平滑法對2010年煤炭吐量進行預測,為把秦皇島港打造“物流港”提供瞭理論依據。
진황도항시아국북방이매탄출구위주적중요물류추뉴。문장분석료진황도항매탄탄토량여시간서렬적이차곡선변화추세,재차기출상채용1991~2009년진황도항역사매탄탄토량수거,통과삼차지수평활법대2010년매탄토량진행예측,위파진황도항타조“물류항”제공료이론의거。
Through the analysis data of the coal throughput at Qinhuangdao Port over the years, the coal throughput at Qinhuangdao Port was found to be related with time-series following a quadratic trend. Based on the data of coal throughput during the period 1991-2009 of Qinhuangdao Port, we apply the three exponential smoothing method to forecast the 2010 year's coal throughput, providing a theoretical basis for the Qinhuangdao Port to build a "LogisticsPort".