CAJ | 학술논문

通过将Taylor（2000）交错价格模型融入新开放宏观经济学模型（NOEM）导出实证模型，有效地将通货膨胀环境与汇率对国内价格传递相融合。选取1998年1月-2012年4月的数据对人民币名义有效汇率的消费者价格指数（CPI）传递效应在不同通胀环境下进行测算，在此基础上对传递途径进行了脉冲检验。实证结果表明，人民币名义有效汇率变动的CPI传递的长短期效应均较低且受通胀环境影响较大，1998年初至2002年末的持续低通胀环境阻碍了汇率传递所有渠道是导致传递效率低的原因所在。2003年初至2012年4月的较高通胀环境下汇率传递的货币渠道较进口商品价格渠道冲击显著但作用符号相反。
통과장Taylor（2000）교착개격모형융입신개방굉관경제학모형（NOEM）도출실증모형，유효지장통화팽창배경여회솔대국내개격전체상융합。선취1998년1월-2012년4월적수거대인민폐명의유효회솔적소비자개격지수（CPI）전체효응재불동통창배경하진행측산，재차기출상대전체도경진행료맥충검험。실증결과표명，인민폐명의유효회솔변동적CPI전체적장단기효응균교저차수통창배경영향교대，1998년초지2002년말적지속저통창배경조애료회솔전체소유거도시도치전체효솔저적원인소재。2003년초지2012년4월적교고통창배경하회솔전체적화폐거도교진구상품개격거도충격현저단작용부호상반。
Through merge the Taylor （2000） staggered price model with the new open macroeconomics model （NOEM）, make the inflation environment and the exchange rate pass - through into domestic prices together. Select the data from 1998.01 -2012.04 to calculate nominal effective exchange rate pass -through effect on consumer prices in the different inflation environment, then test the pulse effect based on the channels. The empirical results show that the short and long term effects of the nominal effective exchange rate movements pass - through effect on consumer price low, and influenced by inflation environmental obviously, from early 1998 to late 2002, continnously low inflation environment has hindered all channels of the exchange rate pass - through; under the inflation environment, the effect of monetary channels of exchange rate pass - through is significantly higher than the effect of import price channels bct the sign of the effect is negative. Recommendations on policies has been made in accordance with the conclusion of empirical studies.